Technical Limbo in the Nasdaq 100

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on July 14th, 2016

The S&P 500 has made a new all-time high. The next day the Dow Jones Industrial Average did the same. Who will be next to join the party? The closest to breaking out is the Nasdaq 100. But this index has some issues. It first tried to take the limelight in December. At that point the Nasdaq fell short of its 2001 high, and the ETF ($QQQ) fell short as well. This completed a bearish Bat harmonic though as it retraced 88.6% of the Tech Bubble crash.

The chart above shows the target on a pullback to 3277. It has not even come close to that. The momentum indicators show that the RSI has stayed bullish and the MACD has pulled back some but is flattening out and still very positive. This is a reminder that not all patterns complete and why technical traders use stop losses.

But it also brings to mind for the harmonic trader that the Bat pattern can sometime be masking a Crab harmonic. This pattern carries a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) well above that of the Bat. In fact it would look for continuation to over 7300 before showing signs of a reversal. The further over 4750 the greater the confidence. Until a definitive move we are left contemplating if it is a Bat or a Crab. I know, don’t say it. Technical Limbo.

The second chart below shows more detail into the last 8 months on the ETF. There is the pullback from the December high and an eventual February low. The next two months saw a retracement of 78.6% of the move lower. But not the full move. It pulled back and held at the 50% level before a bounce and then retracement to the 38.2% level. Now it is back at the 78.6% line and pushing. For those less versed in Fibonacci levels not the trading range that has contained it since March. And how it is pressing the top of the range. But momentum seems to be stalling for now.

A push over the range will give more confidence to the bulls, and put the Nasdaq 100 on track towards the December highs. But that just keeps the Index in limbo until it can make a new all-time high. Will it be the next index to set a new high? I do not know. But there are some pretty interesting price levels in the short run to pay attention to as we wait to find out.

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