- Posted by Greg Harmon on February 28th, 2015 at 9:02 am
A weekly excerpt from the Macro Review analysis sent to subscribers on 10 markets and two timeframes.
Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, heading into the end of February saw the Equity markets as strong moving out of consolidation higher.
Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue lower in the short term while Crude Oil ($USO) continued to consolidate after its bounce. The US Dollar Index ($UUP) also looked to continue to consolidate sideways while US Treasuries ($TLT) were biased lower. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) and Emerging Markets ($EEM) were both consolidating with a bias to break that to the upside.
Volatility ($VXX) looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ, despite the moves higher the past week. Their charts also suggested more upward price action on both the daily and weekly view. This was the first week in a while that all 3 Index ETF’s looked strong.
The week played out with Gold probing lower before finding support at 1200 again while Crude Oil drifted lower in its consolidation. The US Dollar moved moved sideways but to the top of the range by the end of the week while Treasuries had a small bounce before pulling back. The Shanghai Composite came out of the holidays to the upside while Emerging Markets tried to move higher but stalled.
Volatility drifted to a new low for 2015. The Equity Index ETF’s rose on this combination but gave back most or all of the gain by Friday. All were in a tight range all week. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.
SPY Daily, $SPY
The SPY started the week with a whimper, moving slightly higher after the big move the Friday prior. A slight drift higher through to a new all-time high close Tuesday and failed attempt at another Wednesday led to a small pullback and slightly lower close on the week. The daily chart shows the RSI rolling over, but still firmly in the bullish zone, while the MACD is also turning lower.
Out on the weekly chart the breakout held but with a small candle and an upper shadow. Could be consolidation or a signal for a pullback. Perhaps a retest of the range break out. The RSI is turning down on this timeframe, but remains bullish, while the MACD is rising after crossing up last week. There is resistance higher at 212 and Measured Moves to 215 and 225 above that. Support lower comes at 210.25 and 209 followed by 206.40. Possible Pause or Pullback in the Uptrend.
SPY Weekly, $SPY
Heading into March the strength that was anticipated to close February did not appear, but weakness did not show up either. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue the short term bounce higher while Crude Oil churns in the consolidation of the downward move. The US Dollar Index seems ready to move higher again while US Treasuries are biased higher short term in the pullback. The Shanghai Composite is on the cusp of another leg higher and Emerging Markets are stalled at resistance but not showing any bias.
Volatility looks to remain subdued and may drift lower keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts are not as strong with consolidation or a pullback looking more likely in them, especially the SPY with the IWM next and QQQ strongest, holding level. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview February 27, 2015
Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through February 2015 Expiry and sign up here
Is Your Portfolio Compatible with the Year of the Goat?
Posted by Greg Harmon on February 27th, 2015 at 7:11 am
2015 is the year of the Goat in the Chinese calendar. The luckiest things for goats are the numbers 2 and 7 or any number […]
Benzinga Premarket Talk Thursday Morning
Posted by Greg Harmon on February 26th, 2015 at 6:25 pm
Pretend I am Rudolph and press my nose to hear: Get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades. Want to […]
A Brief History of Trading and the Trading Stocks
Posted by Greg Harmon on February 26th, 2015 at 2:31 pm
It used to be that you worked at a company and got a pension. That was a recurring payment when you retired based on the […]
3 Reasons the Transports May Need to Refuel
Posted by Greg Harmon on February 26th, 2015 at 7:00 am
The Dow Transportation Index is the only major index yet to make a new high this year. All of the others have shaken off that […]
It Was Hard Saying Goodbye to Ruby Tuesday
Posted by Greg Harmon on February 25th, 2015 at 2:53 pm
I had to say goodbye to Ruby Tuesday last weekend too. Not quite the same as this classic Rolling Stones song, but I am missing […]
Want to Short the US Market, Then Do it Against Germany
Posted by Greg Harmon on February 25th, 2015 at 7:34 am
The US stock markets are looking very bullish. In fact there have generally been bullish for 6 years. Yet there always seems to be someone […]
Pancakes, Glue and Technicals – The Story of PerkinsElmer
Posted by Greg Harmon on February 24th, 2015 at 2:18 pm
Being a Market Technician has a lot of freedom. Because my trades are based off of price action I can look at any company in […]
Will the Transports Join the Party?
Posted by Greg Harmon on February 24th, 2015 at 7:01 am
The markets are in celebration mode. The Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are all at record highs. The Nasdaq 100 gets a […]
J. B. Hunt is Driving Higher
Posted by Greg Harmon on February 23rd, 2015 at 2:49 pm
Despite new highs in the Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Dow Industrials, the broad market still needs to see the Dow Transportation Index ($IYT) make […]
Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded in the Securities markets since 1986. He has held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
- Top Trade Ideas for the Week of March 2, 2015: The Rest Premium
- Top Trade Ideas for the Week of March 2, 2015: The Best
- SPY Trends and Influencers February 28, 2015
- Macro Week in Review/Preview February 27, 2015
- Is Your Portfolio Compatible with the Year of the Goat?
- Benzinga Premarket Talk Thursday Morning
- A Brief History of Trading and the Trading Stocks
- Premium Earnings 2-26-15
- 3 Reasons the Transports May Need to Refuel
- It Was Hard Saying Goodbye to Ruby Tuesday