SPY Trends and Influencers July 3, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with just 2 trading days left in the month of June, equity markets were settling into a consolidation zone for the large caps as money rotated into the flying small caps. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil ($USO) joined with its own short term downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue higher testing a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) paused after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. Making a new all-time high with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, was looking strong, after a new all-time high both Thursday and Friday.

The week played out with Gold finding support and showing a bounce Thursday while Crude Oil continued to move lower. The US Dollar pulled back from its recent high while Treasuries fell back near to bottom of the consolidation range. The Shanghai Composite managed a small bounce off of its long term moving average while Emerging Markets continued to consolidate at a higher low.

The Volatility Index fell back all week ending near the lows of the year. This relieved pressure on equities and they rose early in the week with the SPY continuing through Wednesday but the IWM and QQQ stalling and seeing late week profit taking. The SPY joined them Thursday, short of the June high. The QQQ is narrowing a consolidation range while the IWM holds near record highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week about 3.5% off its high and consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. It set the bottom rail of the triangle Monday and then rose Tuesday and Wednesday. It briefly touched the top Thursday before reversing lower to close just above the 20 day SMA.The RSI is level at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD falling and about to turn negative after failing to cross up. Downside risk remains with the momentum divergence drawing another lower high, for now.

The weekly chart shows a narrow inside candle closing at the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is drifting lower in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling over and positive. There is support lower at 742 and 740 then 733 and 728 before 724 and 718. There is resistance above at 748.50 and 751.50 then 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the month of June and its non-farm payroll report in the rearview mirror, the high correlation of the equity market indexes may be starting to disconnect. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a short term downtrend along with Crude Oil extending its downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries continue to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets pause and digest after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. Despite this the broad indexes have gone nowhere on the week. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still have some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback is over. Making a new all-time high, or at least a move over the June high, with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, is looking strong, after making a new all-time high Tuesday. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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