SPY Trends and Influencers March 7, 2026

Two weeks ago the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the last week of February and after the Supreme Court ruling that tariffs were illegally put in place, equity markets showed resilience holding steady on the week. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to drift between $5000 and $5100 digesting the long move up and for Crude Oil ($USO) to move slightly higher in the consolidation range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) was continuing to show some weakness holding near a 4 year low while US Treasuries ($TLT) looked to hold in the upper end of the consolidation zone.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to come back in action after the holidays to a pause in the uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued to add new all-time highs in their uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the $SPY and the $IWM remained strong on the longer timeframe with the $QQQ starting to recover from a roll lower. On the shorter timeframe all 3 were in consolidation ranges with the top at the highs but with negative momentum divergences that could lead to short term moves lower.

After a quiet week ending with the marriage of my eldest son, the world awoke to missiles bombarding Iran and all changed. The past week played out with Gold initially probing higher then falling back into consolidation over $5100/oz while Crude Oil spiked to levels not seen since September of 2023. The US Dollar gained, rising to retest the highs of the year while Treasuries fell back to 3 week lows. The Shanghai Composite retested 2026 resistance and pulled back while Emerging Markets dropped back to 2 month lows.

Volatility spiked, touching the highs from October 2025, continuing to ride a rising moving average. These combined to have the greatest impact on small caps as the IWM dropped back to 2 month lows. The SPY and QQQ fared better holding at the bottom of consolidation ranges that they have churned in for 4 and 6 months respectively. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just below the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the drop to the Liberation Day low and over the 100 day SMA. It held there Monday and then drifted down to the 150 day SMA Tuesday. It bounced Wednesday and then dropped through Friday to end the week at support and the 150 day SMA. The RSI is falling at the lower end of the bullish zone in a negative divergence with price and the MACD falling and negative.

The weekly chart shows the first close below the 20 week SMA in 10 months. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD moving lower and positive. There is support lower at 674 before 670 and 667 then 661 and 658 before 651.50. There is resistance above at 676.50 and 680 then 685 and 689 before 692 and 697. Pullback in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the second week of the military operations against Iran, equity markets are succumbing to the combination of global unrest and uncertainty about the future of further rate cuts. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to consolidate between $5000 and $5240 digesting the long move up while Crude Oil continues higher in a new uptrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to show some strength but hold under resistance in consolidation while US Treasuries hold in the upper end of the consolidation zone. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue consolidation in the uptrend while Emerging Markets pullback in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in elevated territory putting pressure on equities. The charts of the SPY and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe with a slight pullback in consolidation while the IWM is starting to roll lower. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ remain in consolidation ranges with negative momentum divergences pushing short term moves lower. The IWM looks to have lost support and is at risk for a move lower. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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