SPY Trends and Influencers June 27, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and June options expiration both in the rearview mirror, equity markets appeared to have weathered the uncertainty and at or approaching all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil ($USO) confirmed its own short term downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue higher breaking the 13 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) looked ready to test new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping a tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe holding over support at the highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. Making a new all-time high with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, was looking strong, consolidating after a new all-time high Monday.

The week played out with Gold continuing lower, dipping below $4000/oz before finding some support while Crude Oil continued lower ending near the pre-war price. The US Dollar met resistance after poking over the long consolidation range and fell back while Treasuries rose to a 3 month high midweek before profit taking. The Shanghai Composite started the week at a 1 month high before dropping to end at support while Emerging Markets started the week at an all-time high before a 5% gap lower and held there the rest of the week.

The Volatility Index ticked up early and teased a jump into the 20s all week without following through. This put a bit of pressure on equities and the large cap indexes moved lower Tuesday and drifted lower all week. The IWM however made new all-time highs as money rotated. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ falling back near the early June lows. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at the 20 day SMA and less than 2% from the all-time high. It held there Monday and then gapped down Tuesday, settling at the 50 day SMA. It held there through Thursday and then gapped down Friday below it and attempted to recover most of the day. It ended the week about 3.5% off its high. The RSI is leveling under the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD falling and about to turn negative. Downside risk remains with the momentum divergence shifting to a lower high after a lower low.

The weekly chart shows a long red candle closing at a 2 month weekly low as it continues to rotate around that 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is falling in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling over and positive. There is support lower at 728 then 724 and 718 before 715 and 710. There is resistance above at 733 followed by 742 and 748.50 then 751.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just 2 trading days left in the month of June, equity markets may be settling into a consolidation zone for the large caps as money rotates into the flying small caps. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil joins with its own short term downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue higher testing a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries continue to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets pause after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still have some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback is over. Making a new all-time high with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, is looking strong, after a new all-time high both Thursday and Friday. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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