SPY Trends and Influencers June 13, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the first week of June and the strong May employment report in the books, sentiment was shifting in the equity markets after starting the week at all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil ($USO) fell in consolidation under $100/bbl, near a change of character to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to move higher in broad consolidation near the top of the range while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to test support in consolidation after avoiding a shift in character. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue digestion in the short term uptrend, on the edge of a shift to downtrend, while Emerging Markets ($EEM) pulled back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue lower in the normal zone, but higher, giving a bit less of a tailwind to equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe and had reset out of overbought conditions. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also looked strong, with all printing all-time highs to start the week, but resetting momentum lower with short term pullbacks to end the week. This could continue.

The week played out with Gold continuing lower to 7 month lows before an end of week bounce while Crude Oil drifted lower until a big drop Friday saw it close at a 2 month low. The US Dollar held the pop from last week until a drop back late in the week left it short of the long term range top while Treasuries held in a narrow range over support. The Shanghai Composite fell below its long term moving average for the first time since March before a bounce Friday while Emerging Markets held in a narrow range ending back above their short term moving average.

Volatility moved higher through midweek but fell back into the teens after talks of a deal with Iran. This allowed equities to continue lower early in the week but they rose Thursday and Friday to end slightly higher. The exception to his was the IWM which ended at a new all-time high Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week after a Marubozu Kicker candle and strong move to the downside. This left it below the 20 day SMA for the first time since the beginning of April. It consolidated within that Friday candle Monday and then dropped to new lows both Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday saw a reversal to the upside and follow through Friday left it at the underside of the 20 day SMA to close the week, more work left. The RSI is rising at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD leveling and positive.

The weekly chart shows a Hammer candle that after the dip closed right on the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is level after a reset slightly lower in the bullish zone with the MACD leveling and positive. There is support lower at 733 and 728 then 724 and 718 before 715 and 710. There is resistance above at 742 and 748.50 then 751.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the FOMC meeting and June options expiration, equity markets appear to have stopped the damage with small caps leading at all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil settles under $90/bbl, near support and a change of character to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to drift lower near the top of the range while US Treasuries continue to hold over support in consolidation after avoiding a shift in character. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term trend to the downside while Emerging Markets look to recover from the pull back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue lower in the normal zone, after a pop to test the recent range, giving a bit of a tailwind to equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe after the reset out of overbought conditions. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still have some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback is over. The IWM, however, is looking strong, with an all-time high to end the week. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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