SPY Trends and Influencers March 14, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the second week of the military operations against Iran, equity markets were succumbing to the combination of global unrest and uncertainty about the future of further rate cuts. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate between $5000 and $5240 digesting the long move up while Crude Oil ($USO) continued higher in a new uptrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to show some strength but hold under resistance in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) held in the upper end of the consolidation zone. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue consolidation in the uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) pulled back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in elevated territory putting pressure on equities. The charts of the $SPY and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe with a slight pullback in consolidation while the $IWM wais starting to roll lower. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ remained in consolidation ranges with negative momentum divergences pushing short term moves lower. The IWM looked to have lost support and was at risk for a move lower.

The week played out with Gold continuing the consolidation, tightening the range to 5100 to 5240/oz while Crude Oil continued the move higher, testing the 2022 top. The US Dollar moved higher toward the top of a nearly year long consolidation range while Treasuries continued lower nearing the lows of the year. The Shanghai Composite held in consolidation under resistance while Emerging Markets churned in place after the pullback.

Volatility spiked at the open Monday but then settled into an elevated range near the highs of the 4th Quarter of 2025. This added downside pressure on equities which impacted the IWM the worst but also found the SPY drifting to 3½ month lows. The QQQ showed relative strength holding in the tight range it has traded in for 6 week. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

 The SPY came into the week at support and the 150 day SMA. It bounced up to the 100 day SMA Monday and held through Wednesday, before falling through support and ending the week at a 4.5 month low. The RSI is falling in the bearish zone and the MACD falling and negative.

The weekly chart shows the price has dropped back to the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop and on support. The RSI is falling at the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD moving lower and positive. There is support lower at 661 and 658 then 651.50 and 649 before 646.50 and 639. There is resistance above at 667 and 670 then 674 and 676.50 before 680 and 685. Pullback in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the third week of the military operations against Iran, equity markets are succumbing to the combination a possible prolonged conflict with the shut down of the Strait of Hormuz and stubborn inflation data. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to consolidate between $4980 and $5240 digesting the long move up while Crude Oil continues higher in a new uptrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to show some strength on the cusp of a break out over resistance in consolidation while US Treasuries leak to the downside. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue consolidation in the uptrend while Emerging Markets pullback in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in elevated territory putting pressure on equities. The charts of the SPY and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe with a slight pullback in consolidation while the IWM is starting to roll lower, a threat to its uptrend. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ are cracking and testing the consolidation range with a short term move lower. The IWM looks to have lost support and headed for its 200 day SMA. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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