SPY Trends and Influencers August 22, 2026

  • Posted by on August 22nd, 2026 at 9:03 am

Two weeks ago, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the July employment report in the rearview, equity markets had found a catalyst in renewed optimism on a Hormuz deal. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the reversal of the downtrend with Crude Oil ($USO) failing on the upside reversal and heading lower. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue the move off of the very top of the 15 month range while US Treasuries ($TLT) were retesting the break down through support in consolidation to 22 year lows in price. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to reverse the short term downtrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) sported their own reversal to the upside.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone with a drift lower putting a tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY and the $IWM responded with new all-time highs on Tuesday. The SPY, the IWM look primed to continue higher with the $QQQ paused at resistance but positive, all on the short timeframe. They all continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with Morning Star reversals.

This week played out with Gold pressing higher and ending at a 3 month high while Crude Oil found some strength and rebounded higher closing the July gap. The US Dollar continued to drop ending at a 3½ month low while Treasuries saw a Dead Cat Bounce on policy changes evaporate late in the week. The Shanghai Composite stalled short of resistance and gave back some gains while Emerging Markets met resistance and churned.

Volatility ticked up slightly off the lowest print since Christmas Eve 2025. This put a little pressure on equities early in the week and then the Bessent announcement saw the drop continue through Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY and IWM shedding about 2% from their all-time high prints at the end of last week and the QQQ losing a little more but from a lower high. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the new all-time high from Thursday. It fell Monday and then gapped down Tuesday. It held there Wednesday and then fell again, touching support and the 20 day SMA Thursday. It ended the week with a small bounce Friday. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD positive but crossed down.

The weekly chart shows a possible topping pattern, with the move lower and tightening Bollinger Bands®. Price remains well above the 20 week SMA though, a positive. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive. There is support lower at 761 then 755.50 and 751.50 before 748.50 and 742 followed by 733. There is resistance above at 769 and 776 before 779. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the August options expiration in the books and heading into next week’s Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, equity markets remain a bit unsettled as the Treasury’s reaction to rising bond yields spook the Dollar and Gold. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend with Crude Oil bouncing in a downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue the move lower in consolidation while US Treasuries continue the move lower at 22 year lows in price. The Shanghai Composite looks poised to reverse higher while Emerging Markets gather upward momentum in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone at the lows of the year keeping a slight tailwind behind equities. They could use that as the charts of the SPY and the IWM are pulling back to support on the shorter timeframe after making new all-time highs, while the QQQ is also at support but after falling from a lower high. They all continue to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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