SPY Trends and Influencers July 25, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with July options expiry in the rearview mirror and heading deep into earnings season, equity markets seemed to be a bit unsettled as the high correlation between the indexes slightly unraveled. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the downtrend but with a Crude Oil ($USO) reversal to the upside. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to hold at the top of the 15 month range while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to threaten to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the confirmation of a reversal to a downtrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) hung on by a thread in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone after a threat of a move higher keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. They could use that as the charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM were showing cracks on the shorter timeframe. The QQQ was the worst followed by the IWM with the SPY holding the strongest. They all continued to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs.

The week played out with Gold finding support and consolidating over 4000 while Crude Oil had a strong surge higher. The US Dollar also moved up to the edge of the 15 month range while Treasuries found support at a retest of the May low. The Shanghai Composite managed a bounce after opening the week at an 11 month low while Emerging Markets failed in a move higher and ended little changed.

The Volatility Index held in the high teens with a threat of a move up, putting some pressure on equities. They responded mid-week with a move lower. This resulted in the SPY falling back to the bottom of support, the QQQ at a 2½ month low and the IWM at a 1 month low. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week in the middle of a symmetrical triangle and under both the 20 and 50 day SMA’s. It moved slightly higher, over both, Tuesday and held there Wednesday. Thursday saw a gap down to the bottom of the triangle and it held there Friday with the second of 2 consecutive doji, indecision candles. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD rolling lower into negative territory.

The weekly chart shows another narrow candle closing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling towards a cross down and positive. There is support lower at733 and 728 before 724 and 718 then 715 and 710. There is resistance above at 740 and 742 before 748.50 and 751.50 then 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the July FOMC meeting and the biggest week of earnings season, equity markets remain unsettled as the continued capex growth hits hyperscalers hard. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the short term downtrend but with Crude Oil reversed to the upside and rising. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to hold at the very top of the 15 month range while US Treasuries continue to threaten to break down through support in consolidation to nearly 3 year lows. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the confirmation of a reversal to a downtrend while Emerging Markets hang on by a thread in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone after a threat of a move higher keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. They could use that as the charts of the SPY and the IWM are showing cracks on the shorter timeframe. The QQQ is worse printing a 2½ month low followed by the IWM at a 1 month low with the SPY holding the strongest. They all continue to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs, with possible cracks leaking into the QQQ and IWM. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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