SPY Trends and Influencers July 11, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the month of June and its non-farm payroll report in the rearview mirror, the high correlation of the equity market indexes was starting to disconnect. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term downtrend along with Crude Oil ($USO) extending its downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) paused and digested after a long run of new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. Despite this the broad indexes had gone nowhere on the week. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading and the SPY and QQQ consolidating. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. Making a new all-time high, or at least a move over the June high, with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, was looking strong, after making a new all-time high Tuesday.

The week played out with Gold consolidating under the short term moving average while Crude Oil met resistance at the cross of its short term and long term moving averages in a bounce and fell back. The US Dollar held in a tight range around its short term moving average while Treasuries fell through support and consolidated at 6 week lows. The Shanghai Composite bounced after a fall through support to end at its long term moving average while Emerging Markets consolidated over support.

The Volatility Index ticked down early in the week but spiked briefly intraday Wednesday before resuming the move lower to end the week at the June low. This pinned equities early in the week but hey rose to new highs Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM also improving early but ending the week surviving a midweek hiccup lower. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week in a symmetrical triangle just above the 20 day SMA. It rose to the upper rail Monday and got knocked back through Wednesday, but only to the 20 day SMA. Thursday it moved higher cracking the triangle and Friday continued to close at a higher high. The RSI is rising off the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD rising and positive.

The weekly chart shows another narrow candle closing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD avoiding a roll over and positive. There is support lower at 751.50 and 748.50 followed by 742 and 740 then 733 and 728. There is resistance above at 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the start of earnings season, equity markets seem to have settled into a consolidation at their all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the short term downtrend along with Crude Oil after its Dead Cat Bounce. The US Dollar Index looks to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and transition into an uptrend while US Treasuries threaten to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range while Emerging Markets consolidate in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ look ready to start a drift to the upside and possibly overtake the IWM as leaders again. They all continue to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY made a higher high, a first step, and the QQQ still has some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback is over. Making a new all-time high, or at least a move over the June high, with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, possibly starting to feel the pinch of the negative momentum divergence in its consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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