SPY Trends and Influencers July 18, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the start of earnings season, equity markets seemed to have settled into a consolidation at their all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the short term downtrend along with Crude Oil ($USO) after its Dead Cat Bounce. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue flirt with a break of the 15 month range and a transition into an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) threatened to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ looked ready to start a drift to the upside and possibly overtake the $IWM as leaders again. They all continued to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY made a higher high, a first step, and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. The IWM, however, started to feel the pinch of the negative momentum divergence in its consolidation.

The week played out with Gold continuing lower to support while Crude Oil revived the cat and rose to a 1 month high. The US Dollar once again failed to break to new highs and fell to support while Treasuries continued to hold just over the May lows. The Shanghai Composite fell to an 11 month low while Emerging Markets closed at a 2½ month low.

Volatility held in the normal range until a spike up Friday that sold back intraday, remaining in the normal zone. As a result equities stagnated early in the week with the QQQ leading lower Thursday and SPY following Friday. This resulted in the QQQ closing at a 5 week low while the SPY and IWM held in their consolidation ranges. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week cracking the symmetrical triangle to the upside and at a higher high. It held there in a tight range through Thursday and gapped down at the open Friday to fall back into the triangle and under both the 20 and 50 day SMA’s. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD rolling over and positive.

The weekly chart shows another narrow candle closing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD avoiding a roll over and positive. There is support lower at 742 and 740 then 733 and 728 before 724 and 718. There is resistance above at 748.50 and 751.50 then 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With July options expiry in the rearview mirror and heading deep into earnings season, equity markets seem to be a bit unsettled as the high correlation between the indexes slightly unraveled. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the downtrend but with Crude Oil reversing to the upside. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to hold at the top of the 15 month range while US Treasuries continue to threaten to break down through support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the confirmation of a reversal to a downtrend while Emerging Markets hang on by a thread in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone after a threat of a move higher keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. They could use that as the charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM are showing cracks on the shorter timeframe. The QQQ is the worst followed by the IWM with the SPY holding the strongest. They all continue to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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