Changes in Attitude Required

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on March 23rd, 2018

February and March have been absolutely horrible months in the stock market. The slam down that started at the beginning of February quickly abated only to usher in two pullbacks in March that now see a retest of the February lows as a real possibility. Combine this with about 10 feet of snow from 100 Nor’easters and it makes for a powerful reason to follow the bears and just hibernate for the winter. To top it off, as spring began a fresh round of selling in the market and yet more snow.

Time to change this mess both in and out of the markets. A line from a Jimmy Buffett song comes to mind:
‘the weather is here, I wish you were beautiful’. There is more sun every day now with sunsets after 7:30 pm here on the western edge of the EDT. That is a good thing. Earnings are kicking a$$ and looking better for the future. Also a good thing. Sure, you can find macro indicators that say the world may end soon, but they have been present every day for many years. The weather forecast shows only minor overnight moves below freezing here. Another good thing. Now we just need the markets to turn around.

If only saying it would make it it happen. The Dow Jones Industrial Average in the chart above shows the carnage and gives a couple of potential areas where it may end. The first is the 23800 level that was important in the early February selloff. The futures have traded below that overnight so perhaps this will not hold this time. The second is the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) from a bullish Bat harmonic in the chart. This is at about 23670, just a few points from the futures low overnight. There are no guarantees in the market of course. So I can only focus on my attitude and continue to practice risk management. And look outside at this sunny day.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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