A Deep Dive into the US Dollar

The US Dollar Index is bruised. It was beaten up badly in 2017 losing over 10% of its value. Not the kind of return reflecting a strong America. And not what you might expect in an environment where interest rates are rising (yes slowly) in the US but stagnant in the rest of the world. Pulling back from the the shorter picture you can still see the 2017 decline, but with that perspective the US Dollar still retains much of the gains it built from 2014 into 2015. The chart below shows some other important information as well.

First in the big picture, the US Dollar has tended to move in 7 year trends. It was up in the 6-7 years ending in 2002, down into 2008 and sideways into mid-2014. With the rise that began in early 2014 the trend higher should continue until 2020-2021. But that series has to be called into question with the sideways motion of the last 3 years. Perhaps this is just another 6-7 year sideways trend that should be measured from the beginning of 2015?

Focusing on the last 4 years there is a lot to take in. The reversal met resistance at a 61.8% retracement of the fall from the 2001 high. It was also at the target from the move out of the symmetrical triangle. Two good reasons to attract sellers. But it also remains over its 200 month SMA , holding near the 38.2% retracement. Closer in the orange box shows the last few years and the tight range that has persisted. A failed break to the upside is now seeing a downside break retested. This could result in a double bottom with a reversal back higher over 95. But momentum is not supportive of that at the present. In fact the RSI is on the verge of moving into the bearish zone below 40 as the MACD falls and is turning negative.

All of this suggests that the path lower may be the easier one for the US Dollar. Price levels to watch are 89.95, the 38.2% retracement level. A hold above that is neutral/positive. Then the 200 week SMA, with a break down below that negative. A push over 95 would be positive for the greenback and then over 100 reestablish the uptrend. Until any of these happen it remains bruised and recovering sideways.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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