The Clear View on the SPY

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 28th, 2014

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The view from the Del is endless out into the Pacific Ocean, so I can see a long way. And while I was looking over a cigar and cold beverage last night I noticed that I can still see that the SPY is getting healthy, but it is not ‘out of the woods’ yet.

The chart above shows that it has mocked the 5-0 harmonic, rising well above the 191.80 level. It has also retraced more than 61.8%, a key Fibonacci level, of the move lower from the all-time high. The RSI has also continued up through the mid line and the MACD is rising. These are good things. But there are some characteristics on the chart that still warrant a cautious view.

That RSI has not yet crossed back into the bullish zone, by moving over 60. The volume on the move higher is not only lighter, but falling. And price has not yet crossed the 50 day SMA, much less made a new high. All of these negatives could change in a day or this week, but until they do there is a move lower that made a lower low and action that may be making a lower high. That is the definition of a downtrend. I am going to keep a cautious eye for a while longer.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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