SPY Trends and Influencers March 29, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the March FOMC meeting and options expiration in the books, that equity markets shifted to stability after 3 weeks of downward price action. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its ascent into space while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to have found support in its drift lower while US Treasuries ($TLT) looked weaker in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to digest the recent move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated in a narrow range.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain slightly elevated putting some pressure on equity markets. Their charts remained at risk of more downside, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY looked to be stabilizing as they held the bounce during the week. The $IWM was a bit weaker.

The week played out with Gold retesting 3000 before a run up to new all-time highs while Crude Oil found some strength and moved higher in the consolidation range. The US Dollar held in a narrow range while Treasuries fell back to a 5 week low before catching a bid Friday. The Shanghai Composite found support and moved sideways while Emerging Markets dropped out of the short consolidation.

The Volatility Index started by moving lower but reversed Wednesday to end the week slightly higher. This saw the bounce rally in equities grind to a halt early in the week and they dropped back through Friday. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ and the IWM printing new 2 week lows. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week pausing in a bounce off the 61.8% retracement of the leg higher since August 2023 and reclaiming the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. It gapped up Monday to touch the 200 day SMA and over the 20 day SMA but then printed and Evening Star reversal pattern and started lower Wednesday. It gathered steam in the move lower Friday to end the week at a 2 week low. It looks as if the bounce might confirm as a bear flag and confirmation would give a target to 513. It has a RSI dropping back from a stall at the midline in bearish territory with the MACD curling to cross down and negative.

The weekly chart shows a bearish engulfing candle, also suggesting more downside, holding under the 50 week SMA. The RSI has gone level at the bottom of the bullish zone with a peak into the bearish zone with the MACD dropping but positive. There is resistance above at 556.50 followed by 565.50 and 569 then 571 and 574.50 before 581 and 585. Support lower is at 549.50 then 545.75 and 542.50 before 540 and 537. Pullback in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just one trading day left in the 1st Quarter of 2025, equity markets showed renewed weakness after a positive start to the week. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its record breaking drive higher while Crude Oil rises in consolidation. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to drift to the downside while US Treasuries pullback in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidation in the short term uptrend while Emerging Markets continue a short term consolidation.

The Volatility Index looks to remain slightly elevated making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. Their charts look vulnerable on both timeframes. On the shorter timeframe the SPY if a bit stronger than the QQQ and IWM. On the longer timeframe all look set up for more downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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