SPY Trends and Influencers September 26, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on September 26th, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the September FOMC meeting and September Quadruple Witching in the books, that equities weathered the storm fairly well and now were headed into an historically weak week. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the pause in its uptrend with Crude Oil ($USO) continuing the short term move higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue in a tight range testing the top of the zone while US Treasuries ($TLT) held the move lower at 22 year lows in price. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked set to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) showed risk to the uptrend with a lower high.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue low in the normal zone, near the lows of the year keeping a tailwind behind equities. The chart of the $QQQ continued to build a range over support on the shorter timeframe, while the $SPY and $IWM continued to face greater short term downward pressure as their bull flags became extended. The SPY and QQQ continued to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs while the IWM now showed some risk to the uptrend.

The week played out with Gold falling back from resistance and threatening a shift to downtrend while Crude Oil lost some ground falling to support before a bounce. The US Dollar met resistance again at the top of the range while Treasuries melted down, resuming the secular downtrend. The Shanghai Composite held in the recent 3 month range while Emerging Markets stalled at a retest of the September highs.

Volatility retested the lows of the year and staged a weak bounce. This allowed equities to have a banner day Monday and a new all-time high for the QQQ Tuesday before giving back most of the gains midweek. They ended the week moving slightly higher resulting in the SPY and the QQQ finishing up on the week while the IWM continued what is now a short term downtrend. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week sitting on support and the 50 day SMA. It jumped and ran higher Monday to a 5 week high and held there Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday it dropped back in response to bond market pressures and then reversed higher Friday to end up on the week. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD positive and rising.

The weekly chart shows a move higher in the bull flag with tight Bollinger Bands® continuing for the 7th week with a small body candle. Price continues to move sideways over the rising 20 week SMA. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD crossing down and positive. There is support lower at 769 and 762.50 then 761 and 755.50 before 751.50 and 748.50. There is resistance above at 772 and 776 before 779. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just 3 trading days left in the 3rd Quarter, equities weathered another storm as bond yields revolted higher and now head into an historically strong period in the election cycle. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to hold onto the uptrend and avoid a reversal with Crude Oil stalling in the short term move higher. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to test the top of the zone while US Treasuries hold the move lower at 22 year high yield and all-time lows in price for the Treasury Bond ETF. The Shanghai Composite looks set to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets show risk to the uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue low in the normal zone, near the lows of the year keeping a tailwind behind equities. The charts of the SPY and the QQQ are breaking their flags over support on the shorter timeframe, on the edge of resuming the uptrend, while the IWM is continuing a short term downtrend. The SPY and QQQ continue to look strong on the longer timeframe with the SPY consolidating at the highs and QQQ breaking higher while the IWM now shows some risk to the 19 month uptrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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