SPY Trends and Influencers October 3, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 3rd, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with just 3 trading days left in the 3rd Quarter, equities had weathered another storm as bond yields revolted higher and now headed into an historically strong period in the election cycle. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to hold onto the uptrend and avoid a reversal with Crude Oil ($USO) stalled in the short term move higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to test the top of the zone while US Treasuries ($TLT) held the move lower at 22 year high yield and all-time lows in price for the Treasury Bond ETF. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked set to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) showed risk to the uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue low in the normal zone, near the lows of the year keeping a tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY and the $QQQ were breaking their flags over support on the shorter timeframe, on the edge of resuming the uptrend, while the $IWM was continuing a short term downtrend. The SPY and QQQ continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with the SPY consolidating at the highs and QQQ breaking higher while the IWM showed some risk to the 19 month uptrend.

The week played out with Gold dropping hard early then consolidating, now in a short term downtrend while Crude Oil consolidated over lower support. The US Dollar poked above the 18 month range on the verge of a breakout while Treasuries finally may have found support after a string of all-time price lows. The Shanghai Composite dropped back to support in consolidation in another holiday shortened week while Emerging Markets held in what is becoming a consolidation zone. Volatility ticked up early in the week but only a minor amount and then fell back Friday to end only marginally higher on the week. This pinned equities early in the week until they rose Friday to end the week either up or little changed. This resulted in the QQQ printing a new all-time high Friday with the SPY at the top of short term consolidation and the IWM possibly finding its footing. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week holding over the 20 day SMA in a bull flag. It fell Monday followed lower through Wednesday, ending at the 50 day SMA. Thursday it held with a hammer reversal candle and confirmed it with a move higher Friday to end nearly flat on the week. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD positive and level.

The weekly chart shows extension of the bull flag with tight Bollinger Bands® continuing for the 8th week with a small body candle. Price continues to move sideways over the rising 20 week SMA. The RSI is holding high in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive. There is support lower at 769 and 762.50 then 761 and 755.50 before 751.50 and 748.50. There is resistance above at 772 and 776 before 779. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the September payroll report in the books and a strong upward shift in the Treasury yield curve equity markets again weather tough seasonal sentiment and now head into an historically strong period in the election cycle. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a short term move lower with Crude Oil pausing in the short term move higher. The US Dollar Index looks to continue through the top of the zone on the verge of an uptrend while US Treasuries continue to move lower at 24 year high yields and all-time lows in price for the Treasury Bond ETF. The Shanghai Composite looks set to continue in consolidation when it reopens Thursday while Emerging Markets continue to show risk to the uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue low in the normal zone, near the lows of the year keeping a tailwind behind equities. The charts of the SPY and the QQQ are breaking their flags over support on the shorter timeframe, on the edge of resuming the uptrend, while the IWM is bouncing in the short term downtrend. The SPY and QQQ continue to look strong on the longer timeframe with the SPY consolidating at the highs and QQQ making new highs while the IWM shows some signs of managing the risk to the 19 month uptrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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