SPY Trends and Influencers October 10, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 10th, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the September payroll report in the books and a strong upward shift in the Treasury yield curve, equity markets had again weathered tough seasonal sentiment and were headed into an historically strong period in the election cycle. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term move lower with Crude Oil ($USO) paused in the short term move higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue through the top of the zone on the verge of an uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to move lower at 24 year high yields and all-time lows in price for the Treasury Bond ETF. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked set to continue in consolidation when it reopens Thursday while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued to show risk to the uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue low in the normal zone, near the lows of the year keeping a tailwind behind equities. The charts of the $SPY and the $QQQ were breaking their flags over support on the shorter timeframe, on the edge of resuming the uptrend, while the $IWM was bouncing in the short term downtrend. The SPY and QQQ continued to look strong on the longer timeframe with the SPY consolidating at the highs and QQQ making new highs while the IWM showed some signs of managing the risk to the 19 month uptrend.

The week played out with Gold holding at support in the short term drop and Crude Oil also maintaining above support levels. The US Dollar slowed in its move higher as it breaks the range while Treasuries bounced from 24 year lows. The Shanghai Composite was little changed in its short week while Emerging Markets fell back near the bottom of a 2 month range.

The Volatility Index moved in a tight 2 point range all week at normal levels. This itself gave equities equities room to run but after setting new all-time highs early they struggled late in the week. This resulted in the SPY ending slightly higher with the QQQ basically unchanged and the IWM marginally lower. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week over confluence of the 20 and 50 day SMA’s and breaking a bull flag higher. It rose Monday and again Tuesday to print a new all-time high close before a pause through Thursday, retesting the prior high. Friday it moved up and closed just off the all-time high. The RSI is rising over the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD positive and climbing.

The weekly chart shows price lifting out of the bull flag with tight Bollinger Bands® and a 9th consecutive small body candle. The RSI is holding high in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive. There is support lower at 776 and 772 then 769 and 762.50 before 761 and 755.50. There is resistance above at 780. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the start of earnings season equity markets are prepped for more upside with seasonal sentiment now headed into an historically strong period in the election cycle. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a pause in the short term move lower with Crude Oil pausing in the short term move higher. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to work to push through the top of the zone on the verge of an uptrend while US Treasuries hold at 24 year high yields and all-time lows in price for the Treasury Bond ETF. The Shanghai Composite looks set to continue in consolidation after the holidays while Emerging Markets continue to show risk to the uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue low in the normal zone, near the lows of the year keeping a tailwind behind equities. The charts of the SPY and the QQQ are looking stronger after breaking their flags over support on the shorter timeframe, while the IWM is finding some footing in the short term downtrend. The SPY and QQQ continue to look strong on the longer timeframe with both the SPY and QQQ making new highs while the IWM continues to show some signs of managing the risk to the 19 month uptrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview October 9, 2026

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus