ETF’s in the Bathroom
- Posted by Greg Harmon
- on March 3rd, 2011
As you stand in the bathroom in your cotton briefs preparing for the day, before sitting down to your morning coffee and muffin, take a moment to reflect on how the ETF space has changed your life. If you are not trimming your ear and nose hair in the mirror like me as you do this, then either you have not been around long enough to remember a world without ETF’s, or you are woman. If you are a woman you can keep reading, no more gross stuff. There are now 3 ETF’s to trade which cover the next 30 minutes of your life. Awesome, huh. Let’s start with the skivvies and Q-Tips.
iPath Dow Jones-AIG Cotton Total Return Sub Index, Ticker: BAL

The Cotton ETF, BAL, really started to take off in August from a long base in the 35 to 40 range. Since then it has gone through a series of thrusts higher of between $30 and $42 followed by partial pullbacks. With the bottom in at 90.50 from the last pullback now is time to expect a Measured Move (MM) higher to the 120 – 132 range based on symmetry with the previous moves. Now on to the that cup of Joe and you better take a sip before this one.
iPath Dow Jones-AIG Coffee Total Return Sub Index, Ticker: JO

The Coffee ETF, JO, got a caffeine injection beginning in June. Since then it has roughly followed the blue trend line higher. Now look at the top and bottom panels, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. Notice that every time the RSI has peaked and the price has touched the trend line together, where this has been followed by the MACD crossing, the price has then fallen back to at least the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) or further to the 50 day SMA. It’s okay take another sip, the arrows point to when this happened. The important thing is that it is happening again right now. If the pattern repeats look for that pullback as an opportunity to buy for another ride up to the trend line. Now for your muffin. Since you are old I assume it is something bland like a corn muffin.
The Corn ETF, CORN, has not even been around for a year but has an interesting history. Look at the simple A-B-C-D pattern it is creating. Applying the Technical Analyst MM magic to it gives a target at D of 50. Still time to pick a few ears now for a good run.
Okay time to finish up that eargasm with your Q-Tip now and get set to conquer this great world. Trade’m well.
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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
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Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded since 1986 and held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)
