Top Trade Ideas for the Week of June 20, 2011: Bonus Idea

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on June 26th, 2011

Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:

Ultrapar Participacoes, Ticker: $UGP

Ultrapar has had a strong move off of a bottom near 16.25 and is now creating an ascending triangle, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turning flat but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continuing higher. The Doji printed on Friday signals indecision, and with the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the triangle top that could mean a reversal lower. If it can break higher over 17.50 then it has resistance at 18 followed by 18.50. If it does fall, then support can be found first at 16.90 and then 16.25. Short interest below 1% will not be a factor.

The Best

The Rest

After reviewing over 800 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Saturday which looks to bring more red to Gold and Crude Oil, although likely at a slower pace in Crude. The US Dollar Index seems headed to a test with the 3 year trend line while US Treasuries look to continue to consolidate, but with an upward bias. The Shanghai Composite looks higher if only to retest the weekly breakdown level while Emerging Markets consolidate, with a chance of more downside. Volatility looks to continue to drift higher with a spike a possible signal of a further downside move in the Equity Index ETF’s. Otherwise they look to continue to consolidate but with the SPY and QQQ biased to the downside while the IWM is biased higher. Use this information to understand the major trend and how it may be influenced as you prepare for the coming week ahead. Trade’m well.

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