SPY Trends and Influencers August 1, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on August 1st, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the July FOMC meeting and the biggest week of earnings season, equity markets remained unsettled as the continued capex growth hit hyperscalers hard. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the short term downtrend but with Crude Oil ($USO) reversed to the upside and rising. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to hold at the very top of the 15 month range while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to threaten to break down through support in consolidation to nearly 3 year lows. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the confirmation of a reversal to a downtrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) hung on by a thread in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal zone after a threat of a move higher keeping at least a slight tailwind behind equities. They could use that as the charts of the $SPY and the $IWM were showing cracks on the shorter timeframe. The $QQQ was worse printing a 2½ month low followed by the IWM at a 1 month low with the SPY holding the strongest. They all continued to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs, with possible cracks leaking into the QQQ and IWM.

The week played out with Gold continuing the consolidation over 4000 in the downtrend while Crude Oil retraced back to support in the mid 80’s. The US Dollar fell sharply mid week while Treasuries dropped back to 2004 levels. The Shanghai Composite held at what has been a support level for 2 years while Emerging Markets made a 3½ month low before bouncing.

Volatility ticked up midweek but fell back after to end lower on the week. This knocked equities lower in the middle of the week but they posted a strong reversal Thursday and held Friday. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ ending higher on the week with the IWM posting a small loss. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at the bottom of the triangle with the second of 2 consecutive doji, indecision candles. It held there through Tuesday before breaking to the downside Wednesday and finishing at a 6 week low. It recovered back inside the triangle Thursday and continued higher Friday, ending near the top of the triangle. The RSI is rising at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD curling to cross up in negative territory.

The weekly chart shows another narrow body candle closing above the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling towards a cross down and positive. There is support lower at 742 and 740 then 733 and 728 before 724 and 718 . There is resistance above at 748.50 and 751.50 then 755.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the July FOMC meeting in the books, equity markets remain a bit unsettled as bond yields rise against the new Fed Chairman’s lack of any clarity. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the short term consolidation in a downtrend with Crude Oil reversed to the upside but paused. The US Dollar Index looks to move off of the very top of the 15 month range while US Treasuries confirm a break down through support in consolidation to 20 year lows in price. The Shanghai Composite looks to pause in the downtrend while Emerging Markets gather upward momentum uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone after a threat of a move higher keeping a slight tailwind behind equities. They could use that as the charts of the SPY and the IWM are showing cracks on the shorter timeframe. The QQQ is now on a short leash to prove it has bottomed and reversed with the IWM up from a 6 week low and the SPY holding the strongest in a 3 month consolidation. They all continue to look strong on the longer timeframe consolidating at the highs, with hammer reversals in the SPY and QQQ. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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