SPY Trends and Influencers May 4, 2024
- Posted by Greg Harmon on May 4th, 2024 at 9:03 am
Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with just 2 trading days left in April, equity markets showed some resilience with a rebound from their first 5% or more pullbacks this year. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) paused in its move higher. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the top of consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) resumed their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) shifted into short term consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated near the top of a broad range.
The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The $SPY and $QQQ charts looked strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY as well as the $IWM were working on reversing their pullbacks.
The week played out with Gold dropping back to support and a big round number while Crude Oil fell back to retest the March breakout area. The US Dollar pulled back to support and bounced while Treasuries consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite had a short 2 day week moving over resistance to a 6 month high and held while Emerging Markets jumped to resistance at a 15 month high.
Volatility dropped to 1 month lows removing pressure on equities late in the week and they rebounded from a 2 day move lower. The SPY and QQQ finished the week little changed with the IWM slightly higher. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.
SPY Daily, $SPY
The SPY came into the week attempting to push up out of a consolidation on the daily chart. That consolidation happened after a pullback from the top at the end of March. It continued Monday and met resistance at the 20 day SMA. That pushed it lower following the 20 day SMA through Thursday. Friday it gapped over it and ran to the 50 day SMA. The RSI is pushing back towards the bullish zone with the MACD crossed up but still negative. There is still some work left to do before confirmation that the pullback is over.
The weekly chart shows price continues to hold over the 20 week SMA with a second positive week. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD leveling after resetting lower. There is resistance at 513.50 and 517.50 then 520.50 and 524.50 with the 138.2% extension of the retracement of 2022 at 530 above. Support lower sits at 510 and 503.50 then 501.50 and 498.50 before 495 and 491. Consolidation in Uptrend.
SPY Weekly, $SPY
With April and the May FOMC meeting in the books, equity markets showed some strength moving higher in a busy week for news. Elsewhere look for Gold to pullback in its uptrend while Crude Oil pulls back in the long uptrend as well. The US Dollar Index is on the edge of a break out to the upside while US Treasuries pause in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term move higher as it returns from a Labor Day holiday while Emerging Markets with further upside will confirm a new uptrend.
The Volatility Index looks to remain very low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the IWM is leading the way to a reversal higher while both the QQQ and SPY still have some work to do before they are in the clear. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview May 3, 2024
-
Macro Week in Review/Preview May 3, 2024
Posted by Greg Harmon on May 3rd, 2024 at 4:58 pmLast week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with just 2 trading days left in April, equity markets showed some resilience with a […]
-
How this Week’s Premium Top 10 Performed, May 3, 2024
Posted by Greg Harmon on May 3rd, 2024 at 4:07 pmEach week I post the performance of the stocks that were given to subscribers the previous Sunday. All performance is measured against the plan given […]
-
4 Trade Ideas for Citigroup: Bonus Idea
Posted by Greg Harmon on April 29th, 2024 at 7:16 amHere is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten: Citigroup, $C, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI in […]
-
5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Freeport-McMoRan, GE Aerospace, Goldman Sachs, McKesson and NVIDIA
Posted by Greg Harmon on April 28th, 2024 at 11:11 am5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers: Freeport-McMoRan, Ticker: $FCX Freeport-McMoRan, $FCX, comes into the week rising toward resistance. […]
-
SPY Trends and Influencers April 27, 2024
Posted by Greg Harmon on April 27th, 2024 at 9:03 amLast week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the April options expiry in the books, equity markets finished the week black and […]
-
How this Week’s Premium Top 10 Performed, April 26, 2024
Posted by Greg Harmon on April 26th, 2024 at 4:14 pmEach week I post the performance of the stocks that were given to subscribers the previous Sunday. All performance is measured against the plan given […]
-
4 Trade Ideas for Johnson & Johnson: Bonus Idea
Posted by Greg Harmon on April 22nd, 2024 at 7:15 amHere is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten: Johnson & Johnson, $JNJ, comes into the week trying to round off a […]
-
5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Analog Devices, Broadcom, Fedex, Lilly and Prudential
Posted by Greg Harmon on April 21st, 2024 at 1:39 pm5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers: Analog Devices, Ticker: $ADI Analog Devices, $ADI, comes into the week approaching […]
-
SPY Trends and Influencers April 20, 2024
Posted by Greg Harmon on April 20th, 2024 at 9:03 amLast week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the April options expiration, equity markets showed some cracks in the uptrends. Elsewhere […]
-
Gregory W. Harmon CMT, CFA, has traded since 1986 and held senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity. (More)