Weekend Poll Results: S&P 500: Triple Top or Long Term Breakout?

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 28th, 2013

The set up: The S&P 500 creates a frenzy of views of among mainstream media, professional traders, investors and taxi drivers and barbers. Everyone has an opinion. I want to know yours. The chart below shows the price of the S&P 500 on a monthly basis since 1980. My question for you is where will it be at the end of 2015?

The result:

Interpretation: First observation is that virtually no one likes the S&P 500 to remain where it is. There is a certainly a bias to the upside but a sizeable number of calls for a 20-50% down move. Seems like the consensus play would be to look at buying straddles with an upside weighting, maybe 2 calls for every put.

This poll will have inherent bias as the responses will be heavily weighted to my followers and they all know I am bullish.
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