4 Trade Ideas Progressive: Bonus Idea

Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:

Progressive, $PGR, recovered from the pandemic drop quickly but stalled as it retraced to the prior high. This proved to be strong resistance and price did not move over it until July. It continued to a top in October before pulling back and making a series of lower highs and lower lows. It is coming off of one of those lows and meeting resistance at the 200 day SMA as it comes into the week.

The RSI is about to break higher with the MACD rising and near positive. The Bollinger Bands® are also opening higher. There is resistance at 89.70 and 92.60 then 96.10 and 98.85 before 100 and 101.50. Support lower comes at 88.30 and 87 then 85 and 84. Short interest is low under 1%. The stock pays a dividend with an annual yield of just 0.45% and begins trading ex-dividend on April 6th. The company reports earnings on a monthly cycle with the 1st Quarter roll up expected around April 17th.

The March options chain shows the biggest open interest at the 87.50 put and then it tails lower. On the call side it is biggest at 90 and 92.50. April options have light interest on the put side and are biggest at 95 on the call side. May options have very large open interest at the 85 put and then it is spread from 90 to 115 on the call side. The August chain has the biggest open interest at the 65 and 70 strikes on the put side. The call side is focused at 90.

Progressive, Ticker: $PGR

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 90 with a stop at 87.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock on a move over 90 and add an April 87.50/82.50 Put Spread ($2.10) while selling the August 100 Calls ($1.80).

Trade Idea 3: Buy the March/May 92.50 Call Calendar ($2.50) and sell the April 82.50 Put (90 cents).

Trade Idea 4: Buy the May 82.50/90/95 Call Spread Risk Reversal (50 cents).

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which saw the first week of March create some havoc in equity market, whipsawing the Indexes as rotation continues.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its pullback while Crude Oil continues to move higher. The US Dollar Index may be starting to reverse to the upside while US Treasuries continue in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to pause in its long term uptrend while Emerging Markets consolidate over long term support.

The Volatility Index looks to remain slightly above normal putting a bit of pressure on equity markets. Their charts continue to look strong on the longer timeframe but not as strong as last week. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ all look to be moving lower with the QQQ looking the weakest of the 3. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.  

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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