Top Trade Ideas for the Week of April 16, 2012: The Rest

Here are the Rest of the Top 10:

Allergan, Ticker: $AGN

Allergan, $AGN, broke from an ascending wedge in early March and ran higher. It halted with a Shooting Star to end March and pulled back to support. Now with Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish and rising and a Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) that is improving it is poised to move higher. Over the previous high look for a test of 100.

Apache, Ticker: $APA

Apache, $APA, has fallen from a high at 112.50 over the past 2 months and is consolidating. The RSI bounced off of technically oversold territory but is pointing lower again while the MACD is negative but improving. Look for a long trade on a move back over 95.70, closing the gap or a renewed drive lower on a break below 92.50.

BlackRock, Ticker: $BLK

BlackRock, $BLK, made a short term triple top just over 209 and has pulled back below the late March support in a bear flag. The RSI is making new lows not seen since November and the MACD is negative and growing as it sits on the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Both point to more downside. Watch for a move below 197 to short.

Dollar Tree, Ticker: $DLTR

Dollar Tree, $DLTR, has been in a steady run higher for more than a year. Recently is has consolidated below resistance at 96.50. The RSI is bullish and has been moving higher, with the MACD improving, trending higher. A break over 96.50 likely takes it to 100 and more.

Mosaic, Ticker: $MOS

Mosaic, $MOS, fell from a double top just under 60 and is consolidating at long term support/resistance at 50.40. The RSI bounced off of the technically oversold level but is pointing lower again. The MACD is negative, but improving. A possible bottoming and reversal sign. A move over 51.70 would confirm a turn higher whereas a break below 50 could continue the run lower. Take what it gives you.

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After reviewing over 900 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Saturday which as the market heads into the height of earnings season like the mood has turned a bit more bearish. Gold continues to look better to the downside, but would not surprise if it hovers while Crude Oil looks better lower in the very short term within the uptrend. The US Dollar Index and US Treasuries continue their upside bias. The Shanghai Composite is verging on moving from an upside bounce to a uptrend while Emerging Markets look like the consolidation may be ending with resolution to the downside. The Volatility Index has solidly confirmed that the bottom is in and the bias is to the upside. These influencers create a mosaic giving the Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ a downward bias and their charts in general agree. The SPY looks to be the most vulnerable for a further fall with the IWM showing a bit more stability as it has moved lower fastest and the QQQ still the strongest, but cracking. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trade’m well.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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