The Limits of the Crude Oil Move

Crude Oil has had a great run this month after a 5 month decline. But taking a step back to the monthly chart shows that the short term downtrend, while knocked down to the mat, may still have a few more counts left before a knock out is declared. The chart below uses the Andrew’s Pitchfork to illustrate the case. The downturn began at the price touched the Median Line of the bullish or green Pitchfork. Now the price is testing Upper Median Line of the bearish red Pitchfork after moving about midway to the Lower Median Line of the green Pitchfork. The intermediate trend is

still lower until it moves through the red Pitchfork and and will be reversed and create a buy signal on a move above the Hagopian Trigger Line currently at about 110. But that is conservative. On a move over the red Upper Median Line price is clearly already being strongly drawn toward the Median Line of the green Pitchfork. the move over the trigger just reinforces it. So how high can it go? The bullish Median Line would sit at 130 for November and if it takes 6 months it would sit at 140 near the previous high from 2008. There are many other indicators and tools that you can use and this is not a sharp pencil view, but 110 and then 130-140 would be a pretty powerful move. What do you see?

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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