SPY Trends and Influencers: Monthly Edition November into December 2013

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on December 1st, 2013

A monthly excerpt from the Premium subscriber version covering all 13 markets.

Last month in this space my Monthly Macro Review/Preview had the monthly outlook suggesting the markets were strong but perhaps getting extended in some sectors. It looked for Gold and Copper to continue to move sideways with the bias for Gold ($GLD) lower and for Copper ($JJC) higher. Crude Oil ($USO) looked to be biased lower going forward while Natural Gas ($UNG) floundered with an upside bias. US Treasuries ($TLT) were set up to move higher if they broke consolidation while the US Dollar Index ($UUP) looked weak and was biased lower. In the foreign markets the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) remained biased lower while Emerging Markets ($EEM) drifted higher in consolidation and the German DAX ($DAX) was strong and looked to move higher. Volatility ($VIX) looked to continue to play no role in the market keeping the wind at the backs of equities. The equity index charts looked strong in their uptrends but the $QQQ was getting a bit overbought and might need to consolidate, while the $SPY and $IWM were not yet extended, but worth tightening the leash. How does an additional month impact the longer term picture? Let’s look at some charts.

As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

SPY, $SPY

The SPY continued higher in November, away from the mid line of the bullish Andrews’ Pitchfork and towards the Upper Median Line. It is through the 113% extension of the move lower from the financial crisis and has the 127% extension above at 189.12. All of the SMA continue to move higher and the Bollinger bands are pointing and moving higher as well. The RSI is a bit overbought technically but not by much with a MACD that is rising. There is support lower at 170 and 155. Continued Upward Price Movement.

The monthly outlook suggests the downside for Gold will continue while Copper continues to consolidate with a downward bias. Crude Oil looks better tot he downside with Natural Gas staging a rally. The US Dollar Index is unperturbed, continuing sideways in a narrow range while US Treasuries are also consolidating but with a downward bias. In the foreign markets the Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets look best to continue to consolidate while the German DAX looks strong like an ox. Volatility looks to remain very low and shows no signs of a significant change continuing to blow a strong breeze behind equities. The Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ are set up to continue higher in the coming months, but one indicator, the RSI is starting to move into cautious territory. Use this information to understand the long term trends in Equities and their influencers as you prepare for the coming months.

For complete analysis of the 13 markets summarized here join the premium service and read Macro Month in Review/Preview November into December 2013 or send me an e-mail requesting a special Macro package.

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The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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