SPY Trends and Influencers: Monthly Edition February into March 2014

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on March 3rd, 2014

A monthly excerpt from the Premium subscriber version covering all 13 markets.

Last month in this space my Monthly Macro Review/Preview had the monthly outlook heading into February suggesting the equity markets may see some consolidation or downside. Gold ($GLD) continued to be biased lower although it may consolidate as Copper ($JJC) continued to consolidate. Crude Oil ($USO) looked to continue to drift higher and Natural Gas ($UNG) was also biased to the upside, and a bit stronger. US Treasuries ($TLT) looked to continue their bounce in the downtrend while the US Dollar Index ($UUP) drifted sideways. The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) looked weak in its downtrend and Emerging Markets ($EEM) looked to continue to move lower in their broad consolidation while the German DAX ($DAX) was ready for a pullback or consolidation. Volatility ($VIX) looked to remain low but drifting higher, lightening the breeze at the backs of US Equities. The Equity Index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ looked ready for a rest at least and perhaps a pullback. How does an additional month impact the longer term picture? Let’s look at some charts.

As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

SPY, $SPY

The SPY broke the consolidation to the upside, closing near the high in a bullish engulfing candle. The move continues to show price attracting to the Upper Median Line of the Andrew’s Pitchfork. There is the 127% extension of the previous down move at 189.12 just above and the 138.2% extension at 199.88 above that. The RSI is bullish and strong, just over 70 with a MACD that continues to rise. Both support more upward price action. There is no resistance higher and support comes lower at 175 and 169.25 before 158. Continued Upward Price Action.

The monthly outlook heading into March suggests the equity markets have broke their consolidation to the upside and want more. Gold has committed to consolidation joining Copper. Crude Oil looks to continue to drift higher and Natural Gas is also biased to the upside, but with some caution now. US Treasuries look to continue their bounce in the recent consolidation while the US Dollar Index drifts sideways with a downward bias. The Shanghai Composite looks weak in its downtrend and Emerging Markets look to continue their broad consolidation in the lower part of a channel while the German DAX wants more upside. Volatility looks to remain low, helping US Equities. The Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ look ready for a move higher following the short consolidation. Use this information to understand the long term trends in Equities and their influencers as you prepare for the coming months.

For complete analysis of the 13 markets summarized here join the premium service and read Macro Month in Review/Preview February into March 2014.

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