SPY Trends and Influencers September 6, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on September 6th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with August in the books and heading into the Labor Day Holiday weekend, equity markets held firm with some minor profit taking Friday. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to press up and through the top of its consolidation zone while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to base in the intermediate term move to the downside, teasing a possible change of character, while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold at low levels making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The chart of the $SPY continued to look strong on both timeframes, closing just under Thursday’s all-time high. The $QQQ had a short term warning sign with momentum fading but remained strong on the longer timeframe. The $IWM more closely resembled the SPY, strong on both timeframes, but measured against its 8½ month high.

The week played out with Gold driving higher out to consolidation to new all-time highs while Crude Oil played out a failed attempt to move higher in consolidation. The US Dollar dropped to a 5 week low in consolidation while Treasuries jumped to the top of their consolidation range. The Shanghai Composite fell back from resistance while Emerging Markets ran into resistance in their trend higher.

Volatility ticked up early in the week but fell back into the normal range the rest of the week. This stopped the short bleed in equities early in the week and they rose through Thursday. This resulted in the SPY printing a new all-time high Thursday and then it and the QQQ and the IWM saw some profit taking Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the all-time high close on Thursday. It started the week off with a gap down through the 20 day SMA and recovered to the 20 day SMA to close the day. It continued higher Wednesday and Thursday, closing at a new all-time high before a weak employment report led to selling Friday. It ended the week just a few points off the high. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive. There is a negative momentum divergence developing on this timeframe though.

The weekly chart shows the taller body candle, not confirming last week’s doji as a reversal. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising, no negative momentum divergence here. The Bollinger Bands® are pointing higher. There is support lower at 646.50 and 639 followed by 631 and 629 then 626 and 624. There is resistance above at 649 then 651.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the first week of September in the books, equity markets held firm with some minor midweek profit taking despite some dismal employment data. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the renewed uptrend while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to base , a change of character to consolidation, while US Treasuries continue to consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The chart of the SPY continues to look strong on both timeframes, closing just under Thursday’s all-time high but with some signs of consolidation. The QQQ has a short term warning sign with momentum fading as it consolidates over support but remains strong on the longer timeframe. The IWM more closely resembles the SPY, strong on both timeframes with some possible short term consolidation creeping in but measured against its 8½ month high. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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