SPY Trends and Influencers September 20, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on September 20th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the September FOMC meeting, equity markets were rocking, making new highs as the focus had shifted toward addressing labor market weakness and away from inflation data. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to run sideways in consolidation, while US Treasuries ($TLT) looked to be in the early stages of reversing their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend at 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The chart of the $SPY continued to look strong on both timeframes, closing at an all-time high with the $QQQ negating its warning sign and also at new highs. The $IWM remained the laggard, but strong on both timeframes, and at a 10 month high, just short of its top.

The week played out with Gold moving over 3700 for the first time before seeing some profit taking midweek while Crude Oil saw a brief move higher reverse midweek. The US Dollar found support at the July low and bounced while Treasuries fell back from what may be a failed break out. The Shanghai Composite consolidated under resistance in the trend higher while Emerging Markets finally met some resistance midweek and paused.

Volatility ticked up slightly early in the week but fell back midweek to end little changed in the normal range on the week. This unleashed equities and they rose to new highs after the after the FOMC meeting with the IWM finally joining the list of new all-time highs. The SPY and QQQ also printed new all-time highs Thursday and then the SPY and the IWM saw some profit taking Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the all-time high close from Thursday. It started the week off with a small gap up Monday to a new all-time high and continued higher Tuesday. It paused Wednesday before another new high Thursday and Friday. The RSI is deep in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive.

The weekly chart shows a third candle moving higher. It closed the week just over the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. The Bollinger Bands® are pointing higher. There is support lower at 661 and 658 then 651.50 and 649 before 646.50 and 639. There is no resistance above 665. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Coming out of a week with the FOMC meeting and Quadruple Witching, equity markets continued to look rock solid, making new highs in the index ETFs across the board. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil drifts in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to run sideways in consolidation, while US Treasuries may be in the early stages of reversing their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend at 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ are all strong on both timeframes. The SPY and the QQQ added 3 more all-time high closes, including Friday, while the IWM saw profit taking Friday after its first new all-time high in 46 months. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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