SPY Trends and Influencers October 4, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 5th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw coming into the end of the 3rd Quarter, equity markets looked strong as they held up well in what historically was a soft seasonal environment, just shy of record highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to run sideways in consolidation, while US Treasuries ($TLT) might be in the early stages of reversing their downtrend but needed more convincing.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term consolidation in the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend at 4 year highs. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ were all strong on both timeframes. The SPY and the QQQ added another all-time high close to start the week and along with the IWM looked poised for that to continue into the 4th Quarter.

The week played out with Gold breaking short term consolidation and racing to new highs while Crude Oil fell to 5 month lows in broad consolidation. The US Dollar Index drifted lower in consolidation while Treasuries went the other way drifting higher. The Shanghai Composite held in consolidation of the uptrend in a holiday shortened week while Emerging Markets continued up to new 4 year highs.

Volatility held in a narrow range in the normal zone. This gave equities the freedom to move higher in a newsless environment and equities moved higher all week. This resulted in the SPY printing a new all-time high 2 days to start the 4th Quarter, the QQQ with new highs Wednesday and Thursday, and the IWM joining with a new high Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the all-time high close and moving higher off a touch at the 20 day SMA. It started the week off with a small gap up Monday and continued higher Tuesday through the end of the week. This led to 2 consecutive new all-time high closes to start October before a penny pullback Friday. The RSI is deep in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive.

The weekly chart shows a push higher with some separation from the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. The Bollinger Bands® are pointing higher. There is support lower at 667 followed by 661 and 658 then 651.50 and 649 before 646.50 and 639. There is no resistance above 670. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

The transition from the end of the 3rd Quarter to the 4th Quarter went swimmingly for equity markets as they continued to move higher, piling up new record highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil drifts lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to run sideways in consolidation, while US Treasuries hold higher in their consolidation, teasing of a reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term consolidation in the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend to new 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ are all strong on both timeframes, supporting more upside. The SPY and the QQQ added 2 more new all-time highs with the IWM with one to close the week. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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