SPY Trends and Influencers October 19, 2024

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on October 19th, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the inflation reports behind us, equity markets showed strength with the SPY ending at an all-time high. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to move to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to reverse lower while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidate the start of an uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially the $SPY and $QQQ on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY were now ready to resume the move higher. The $IWM looked a bit less powerful but was holding near resistance, a good show of relative strength for the small caps.

The week played out with Gold chugging higher and ending at a new all-time high while Crude Oil fell back in the broad consolidation. The US Dollar met resistance at a lower high at the end of the week while Treasuries printed a Dead Cat Bounce after finding support Monday. The Shanghai Composite continued lower toward the September month end gap while Emerging Markets turned consolidation into a falling wedge.

Volatility drifted down to the lowest close of the month. This gave equities some breathing room and they rose to to start the week with the SPY printing a new all-time high Monday. All gave back some gains midweek before recovering to finish the week strong. This left the SPY back at the high, the QQQ near the October high and the IWM holding at nearly 3 year highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at a new all-time high. It started off on the right foot making another one on Monday but ended out of the Bollinger Bands® on the daily chart. That led to a pullback on Tuesday and small reversal higher on Wednesday. Thursday broke higher as well with a gap up at the open, but it did not hold and then another gap up Friday held with the SPY ending at a new all-time high. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and climbing as those Bollinger Bands point higher.

The weekly chart shows a 6th consecutive move higher as it makes some separation from the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is making a higher high, negating a possible momentum divergence with the MACD crossed up and rising. There is resistance at 585 above. Support comes at 580 and 574.50 then 571.50 and 565.50 before 561.50 and 556.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the October Options Expiration in the books, equity markets showed some strength battling against a narrative of slower Fed cuts. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil drops in consolidation. The US Dollar Index may reverse the short term uptrend while US Treasuries pullback in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to drop back from its spike while Emerging Markets stall in their move higher.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the SPY is leading the way higher with the QQQ slowly battling back to its high and the IWM poking its head up perhaps to make another attempt at a run higher. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview October 18, 2024

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus