SPY Trends and Influencers October 11, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw that the transition from the end of the 3rd Quarter to the 4th Quarter went swimmingly for equity markets as they continued to move higher, piling up new record highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil ($USO) drifted lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to run sideways in consolidation, while US Treasuries ($TLT) held higher in their consolidation, teasing of a reversal higher.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term consolidation in the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend to new 4 year highs. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold at low levels, making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ were all strong on both timeframes, supporting more upside. The SPY and the QQQ added 2 more new all-time highs with the IWM with one to close the week.

The week played out with Gold moving up over $4000/oz for the first time ever while Crude Oil saw a bounce fail and lead to a lower low. The US Dollar found some strength rising off a higher low while Treasuries held in a tight range. The Shanghai Composite poked over the consolidation range the first day out of a long holiday hiatus only to retreat Friday while Emerging Markets digested the latest thrust higher.

Volatility held in a tight range in the normal zone until Friday afternoon. This allowed equities to move up early in the week to new highs before some choppiness arrived mid-week. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ printing a new all-time high Wednesday and the IWM Monday. Then the threat of higher tariffs on China led to a Friday afternoon sell off. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just off the all-time high close and moving above the 20 day SMA. It started the week off with a small gap up Monday to a new all-time high and made another Wednesday. Thursday capped of a string of 6 narrow range days and then Friday it moved lower erasing a month of gains. This put it under the 20 day SMA for the first time since September 2nd. The RSI has dropped below the midline in the bullish zone to its lowest level since April with the MACD dropping but positive.

The weekly chart shows a bearish engulfing candle dropping back below the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback. The RSI is pulling back from overbought in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rolling toward a cross down. There is support lower at 651.50 and 649 then 646.50 and 639 before 631 and 629. There is resistance above at 658 and 661 then 667 and 670. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

The first full week without economic data started well for equity markets as they continued to move higher, piling up more new record highs, but Friday ended that. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend to new highs while Crude Oil moves lower in a short term downtrend in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to drift upwards in consolidation, while US Treasuries hold higher in their consolidation, continuing to tease of a reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term consolidation in the uptrend to new 10 year highs while Emerging Markets also continue their uptrend to new 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to drift higher from low levels, pumping the brakes on the equity markets move to the upside. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe, albeit with a possible reversal candle this week. On the shorter timeframe despite the SPY and the QQQ adding 2 more new all-time highs and the IWM with one, they all ended the week with strong moves to the downside suggesting more downside to come. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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