SPY Trends and Influencers November 8, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw following the FOMC meeting and Powell’s unexpected caution that a December rate cut was not inevitable, that equity markets brushed it aside and focused on the good earnings reports to hold at all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil ($USO) moved lower again in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to drift to the upside in consolidation rounding out a bottom, while US Treasuries ($TLT) held at the breakout higher in their consolidation, continuing to tease of an intermediate term reversal higher.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend at 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) also continued their uptrend at 4 year highs. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to drift in the normal zone freeing equity markets to move higher. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and QQQ also looked strong holding at all-time highs, while the IWM continued the trend higher but in a more volatile range.

The week played out with Gold continuing the consolidation around 4000/oz in the uptrend while Crude Oil continued lower in consolidation. The US Dollar met resistance and reversed lower while Treasuries fell back below the breakout level and continued lower. The Shanghai Composite maintained at the highs in a short term consolidation while Emerging Markets pulled back to a 3 week low.

The Volatility Index ticked up slightly, poking back over 20. This put pressure on equities and they fell all week amidst Government shutdown shenanigans and Fed speak. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ printing 3 week lows and the IWM a 1 month low. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week within the Bollinger Bands® after a two day pullback from a Wednesday all-time high close. It held there on Monday and then dropped on Tuesday to continue the pullback. It held there on Wednesday above the 20 day SMA but dropped below Thursday. Friday saw continuation lower, below the 50 day SMA intraday before a rebound to close above it. The RSI is falling through the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed down but positive.

The weekly chart shows confirmation of the doji from last week as a reversal signal with price pulling back to the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback before a bounce. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and flat. There is support lower at 670 followed by 667 and 662 then 658 and 651.50 before 649 and 646.50. There is resistance above at 674 then 676.50 and 685 before 688.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the 1st week of November in the books equity markets showed some jitters, falling in a week filled with election results, Fed speak and tariff legitimacy debate. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil moves lower again in consolidation. The US Dollar Index shifts to a short term drift to the downside as it tries to round out a bottom, while US Treasuries give up the breakout in consolidation, putting at risk of an intermediate term reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend at 10 year highs while Emerging Markets stall in their uptrend near 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to drift up in the normal zone slamming the brakes on the equity moves higher and setting them back. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe but with a crack showing in the armor. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and QQQ have reset from the all-time highs to the 50 day SMA and are a risk for further downside, while the IWM looks most vulnerable to more downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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