SPY Trends and Influencers November 25, 2023

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the November Options Expiration in the books, equity markets showed strength with tech and large caps printing a third weekly move to the upside and now joined by the small caps. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its short term move higher while Crude Oil ($USO) its short term move to the down side. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) shifted to a pullback that looked to continue while US Treasuries ($TLT) bounced in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue its bounce in a downtrend as well while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain very low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the large caps and tech looked strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the $QQQ was about to shift to an intermediate term trend higher and the $SPY was not far behind. The $IWM remained mired in consolidation despite a fabulous week for small caps.

The week played out with Gold meeting resistance as it hit $2000 again while Crude Oil held a small bounce in the downtrend. The US Dollar continued the pullback while the bounce in Treasuries slowed to a crawl. The Shanghai Composite met resistance in its bounce while Emerging Markets held in a tight range in consolidation. Volatility continued to move lower, ending below the teens, at pre-pandemic levels.

This continued to give equities a boost and they moved higher on the week with a bit of chop. A strong Monday was followed by a retench Tuesday then a renewed move higher Wednesday before a mixed bag Friday. The SPY and QQQ have cleared the September highs with the QQQ at nearly 2 year highs and approaching the all-time high, The IWM continues to consolidate at the September gap down. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week in a short term uptrend and approaching the high from the early September top on the daily chart. It started the week strong moving over that top and then continued higher. Wednesday it has closed the gap down from August 2nd and it held there Friday after returning from the Thanksgiving break. The RSI is into overbought territory but barely and is running flat with the MACD rising and positive.

The weekly chart shows price just shy of triggering a Cup and Handle with a target to 570. The RSI on this timeframe is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD crossing up and positive. There is resistance at 457 and 460 then 463.50 and 466 before 470. Support lower comes at 454 and 451 then 447 and 444 before 437.50. Short Term Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the last week of November, equity markets continue to look strong and ready for more upside. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its short term move higher while Crude Oil bounces in the downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues the short term drift to the downside while US Treasuries bounce in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to stall in its bounce while Emerging Markets consolidate in a broad range.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the large cap and tech indexes look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the QQQ has cleared a major hurdle and the SPY could be next as it is not far behind. The IWM continues to remain stuck in consolidation but positive in the short run. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Use this link to get special Black Friday Pricing!

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview November 24, 2023

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Dragonfly Caps Blog