SPY Trends and Influencers November 22, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the Government Shutdown in the rearview mirror, equity markets showed continued jitters, falling in a week with Fed speak and no Government data. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil ($USO) held lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued the short term drift to the downside, as it tried to round out a bottom, while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued in consolidation, putting at risk of an intermediate term reversal higher.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend at 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) stalled in their uptrend pulling back from 4 year highs. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to inch up in the normal zone stalling the equity moves and setting them back. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe but with some risk of a correction through time. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and QQQ reset from the all-time highs to the 50 day SMA and were at risk for further downside, while the IWM looked most vulnerable to more downside.

The week played out with Gold consolidating and holding steady while Crude Oil continued to hold at the low end of consolidation. The US Dollar bounced back to the edge of a break higher while Treasuries marked time at last week’s close. The Shanghai Composite dropped back into the channel from the summer while Emerging Markets dropped and are approaching the October low.

Volatility moved higher on the week, touching the October high and above the normal zone. Equities responded with a jumpy week, continuing the move lower. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ breaking key moving averages for the first time in over 6 months and finishing with a bounce off 2 month lows. The IWM saw a 3 month low. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at the 50 day SMA. It dropped below Monday and continued Tuesday before a pause Wednesday. Thursday saw a big gap up at the open sell off all day to close below the 100 day SMA, something it had not done since May 9th. It had a bounce Friday afternoon to close back over the 100 day SMA for the week. The RSI is falling in the bearish zone with the MACD dropping and negative.

The weekly chart shows a drop through the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback that touched the 20 week SMA, also for the first time since early May. The RSI is dropping in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed down and positive. There is support lower at 658 and 651.50 before 649 and 646.50 then 639. There is resistance above at 662 and 667 then 670 and 674 before 676.50 and 685. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the November options expiration in the rearview mirror, equity markets showed continued jitters, with mixed messaging from the Fed and the first Government data, the September jobs report. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil holds lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues the short term drift to the upside, toward a breakout, while US Treasuries continue in consolidation, sputtering the possible reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend after some digestion from the 10 year highs while Emerging Markets stall in their uptrend putting it at risk.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to move up into elevated territory further stalling the equity moves higher and setting them back. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe but with some risk of a correction. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and QQQ have reset from the all-time highs to the 100 day SMA and remain at risk for further downside, while the IWM looks most vulnerable to more downside, sitting on support. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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