SPY Trends and Influencers November 19, 2022

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on November 19th, 2022

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators saw heading into November Options Expiry and the last week before the holiday season, equity markets showed exuberance as inflation data for October suggested the Fed was winning its battle. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its move to the upside while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to move lower while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) bounced in their downtrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue its path back to the normal range making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked much stronger, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the $SPY was leading the charge higher followed by the $IWM. The $QQQ was the laggard but was now breaking a 2 month resistance zone to the upside.

The week played out with Gold meeting resistance and dropping back the last half of the week while Crude Oil broke consolidation to the downside to retest the September low. The US Dollar found support in the pullback while Treasuries found some life and moved to 7 week highs. The Shanghai Composite met resistance in its move higher and pulled back while Emerging Markets also ran out of gas and fell back.

The Volatility Index found support and consolidated at 2 month lows. This removed the tail wind behind equities and they met some profit taking into Thursday. All found support then and reversed to finish the week only slightly lower. This resulted in the SPY, IWM and QQQ printing inside weeks and raising the possibility that the move higher is done. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week following the best week in 2 years. It held in place through Wednesday, after a move higher Tuesday could not hold. Thursday it gapped down but the ran higher all day and moved up Friday to end the week only slightly lower. The daily chart shows the RSI holding at the edge of a move into the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising.

The weekly chart printed a doji candle near the top of last week’s candle. This indicates indecision and after a major move last week shows solid digestion. The RSI on this timeframe is at the midline with the MACD rising but negative. There is resistance at 397.50 and 400.50 then 403.50 and 405.50 before 407.50 and 411 then 413.50. Support lower comes at 394.50 and 391.50 then 389.50 and 386 before 382 and 380. Short Term Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the shortened Thanksgiving week and with November Options Expiration in the books, equity markets showed continued promise, holding up after a very strong previous week and in the wake of the repercussions following a massive failure in the cryptocurrency space. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its short term reversal lower while Crude Oil consolidates in a downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues to pullback in the uptrend while US Treasuries bounce in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term uptrend while Emerging Markets experience a stalled bounce in the downtrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue towards normal levels making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look decent on the shorter timeframe with wide paths higher in the SPY and IWM but a consolidation over prior resistance on the QQQ. On the longer timeframe the nascent moves higher are far short of confirming a reversal. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview November 18, 2022

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus