SPY Trends and Influencers November 16, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the Presidential Election and November FOMC meeting in the rearview mirror, equity markets showed jubilation as they vaulted higher. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to move to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their pullback. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) chopped in their short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VIX) looked to remain low and drifting lower following the election making it easier for equity markets to continue higher. Their charts looked strong on both timeframes, especially the $SPY and $QQQ. The $IWM had also joined the party, a stone’s throw away from making its first new all-time high in 2 years.

The week played out with Gold breaking to the downside while Crude Oil fell back to the bottom of the consolidation range. The US Dollar rose to a 12 month high while Treasuries fell back to 4 month lows. The Shanghai Composite saw profit taking drop it back while Emerging Markets turned a failed breakout into a move down to a 2 month low.

Volatility fell back to a 4 month low before a bounce following Chairman Powell’s speech Thursday. This had equities flat-footed early in the week but they dropped back Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ falling to post-election lows following the all-time highs to end last week and the IWM giving up 75% of its post-election gain. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at an all-time high. It made another on Monday and then moved sideways in consolidation and back within the Bollinger Bands® on the daily chart. Thursday it started lower and followed that with a gap down and run to the 20 day SMA Friday. The RSI fell back near the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD curling to cross down and positive, a momentum reset for now.

The weekly chart shows a retrace back to the October high. The RSI is pulling back from a touch at overbought with the MACD flat and positive. There is resistance higher at 600. Support below is at 585 and 580 then 574.50 and 571.50 before 565.50 and 556.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the November options expiration in the books, equity markets showed some weakness as they reacted to Chairman Powell’s comments about not being in a hurry to cut rates. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its pullback in the uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the upside while US Treasuries hold in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets maintain their short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts continue to look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, QQQ and IWM are all digesting the post-election euphoria and coming back to retest the breakouts. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview November 15, 2024

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Dragonfly Caps Blog