SPY Trends and Influencers November 15, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the 1st week of November in the books equity markets showed some jitters, falling in a week filled with election results, Fed speak and tariff legitimacy debate. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil ($USO) moved lower again in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) shifted to a short term drift to the downside as it tried to round out a bottom, while US Treasuries ($TLT) gave up the breakout in consolidation, putting at risk an intermediate term reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend at 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) stalled in their uptrend near 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to drift up in the normal zone slamming the brakes on the equity moves higher and setting them back. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe but with a crack showing in the armor. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ had reset from the all-time highs to the 50 day SMA and were at risk for further downside, while the IWM looked most vulnerable to more downside.

The week played out with Gold racing higher for 3 days before profit taking eat most of the gain while Crude Oil bounced around under key resistance. The US Dollar drifted lower while Treasuries bounced but met resistance and gave up their gains. The Shanghai Composite broke a consolidation to a new 10 year high before Friday profit taking while Emerging Markets rolled over at a lower high.

Volatility settled early but then ticked up late in the week resting key resistance. This slowed equities early in the week but then knocked them lower Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ and the IWM printing lower highs and then the QQQ and IWM touching 1 month and 2½ lows, respectfully. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week holding over the 50 day SMA after ending the week with a Hammer reversal candle. It gapped higher Monday over the 20 day SMA and inched up Tuesday and Wednesday but stalled without making a new high. Thursday it dropped through the 20 day SMA again and gapped down again Friday below the 50 day SMA and rose back to end the week above it and close the gap. The RSI is falling at the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed down but positive.

The weekly chart shows a second pull back to the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 pullback before a bounce. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and near a cross down. There is support lower at 670 followed by 667 and 662 then 658 and 651.50 before 649 and 646.50. There is resistance above at 674 then 676.50 and 685 before 688.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the Government Shutdown in the rearview mirror, equity markets showed continued jitters, falling in a week with Fed speak and no Government data. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend with some short term consolidation while Crude Oil holds lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues the short term drift to the downside, as it tries to round out a bottom, while US Treasuries continue in consolidation, putting at risk of an intermediate term reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the uptrend at 10 year highs while Emerging Markets stall in their uptrend pulling back from 4 year highs.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to inch up in the normal zone stalling the equity moves higher and setting them back. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe but with some risk of a correction through time. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and QQQ have reset from the all-time highs to the 50 day SMA and are a risk for further downside, while the IWM looks most vulnerable to more downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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