SPY Trends and Influencers May 31, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on May 31st, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the unofficial start of summer, equity markets showed they could use a long weekend to recover. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) continued to trend lower. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a short term move to the downside while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) remained on the cusp of breaking consolidation to the upside.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal range, but with an upside bias, removing the stimulus for equity markets to the upside. Their charts showed short term strength on the longer timeframe with digestion in the shorter timeframes. The $IWM continued to lag the $SPY and $QQQ in recovery in price and the shift to bullish momentum on the longer timeframe. The classic “V” recovery continued to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY and QQQ closed in on their all-time highs.

The week played out with Gold consolidating consolidating in the uptrend while Crude Oil found support and held in a narrow range. The US Dollar attempted to rebound but failed and stayed in a narrow range as well while Treasuries moved higher in in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite continued to move sideways while Emerging Markets did break consolidation, but to the downside.

The Volatility Index dropped early, giving up that upside bias and then held in the normal range. This gave equities a pop early in the week but they stalled after that 1 day move. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM little changed but with positive weekly candles continuing the bull case. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week pulling back from a 2½ month high and at the 20 day SMA. It launched higher Tuesday and held there through Friday. It ended the week just below the May 19 top. The RSI is level in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling over towards a cross down and positive.

The weekly chart shows an inside week holding over the 20 and 50 week SMA’s. The RSI is holding over the midline with the MACD negative but crossed up. There is support lower at 586 and 581 before 574.50 and 571.50. Resistance above is at 590 followed by 593 and 600 then 604 and 609 before 613. Short Term Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the month of May in the books, equity markets showed a budding recovery from last week. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil continues to trend lower. The US Dollar Index continues a short term move to the downside while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets fall from the cusp of a break to the upside.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts show short term strength on the longer timeframe with digestion in the shorter timeframes. The IWM continues to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price and the shift to bullish momentum on the longer timeframe. The classic “V” recovery continues to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY and QQQ close in on their all-time highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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