SPY Trends and Influencers March 8, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on March 8th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the month of February in the books, that equity markets ended a seasonally weak period, raising the fear factor. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to pause in its march higher while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to try to rebound to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) showed some short term strength in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to consolidate in the recent move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) shifted to a short term move lower.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low but rising, making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ looked strong still on the longer timeframe, but on the shorter timeframe both, as well as the $IWM, were showing signs of a deeper pullback. The IWM remained stuck in a channel on the longer timeframe.

The week played out with Gold moving back over 2900 and consolidating while Crude Oil fell to the bottom of the 26 month consolidation range. The US Dollar dropped to a 4½ month low while Treasuries met resistance and fell back. The Shanghai Composite recovered from last weeks digestive move lower while Emerging Markets recovered about half of their recent drop.

Volatility continued to move up ending at a nearly 3 month high and out of the long term range. This pushed equities lower all week and resulted in the SPY and the QQQ breaking their long term moving averages for the first time since November 2023 and August 2024, respectively. The IWM, already below its moving average, continued lower to prices not seen since August 2024. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week pulling back from a new all-time high 9 days earlier and looking to be in consolidation. It dropped back Monday and Tuesday before a bounce Wednesday brought it back within the Bollinger Bands®. Thursday saw another drop find support as it touched the 200 day SMA for the first time since November 1, 2023. It probed lower Friday before buyers showed up at noon and snapped it back over the 200 day SMA and inside the Bollinger Bands. The RSI is holding in the bearish zone with the MACD dropping and negative.

After a peak Tuesday, volume fell back the rest of the week. The weekly chart shows a retest at the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop and 50 week SMA hold and reverse higher. The RSI is dropping through the midline with the MACD positive and dropping. There is support lower at 574.50 and 571.50 then 565.50 and 556.50 before 549.50. Resistance is higher at 581 and 585 then 590 and 593 before 600 and 604. Consolidation in the Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the first week of March in the books, equity markets took a beating as the first tariffs were enforced. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation just under all-time highs while Crude Oil drops in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues to move to the downside while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation while Emerging Markets consolidate in a broad messy chop.

The Volatility Index looks to rise, making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ continue to look strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY are weak and vulnerable for more downside. This could shift the long term look over the next few weeks. The IWM looks weak on both timeframes, leading to the downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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