SPY Trends and Influencers March 28, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on March 28th, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the March FOMC meeting and Quadruple Witching in the books, equity markets had taken a turn for the worse ending at 6 month lows and below their long term moving averages. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its pullback in the long term uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) churned around $100 per barrel. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to continue to press on resistance in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) bled to the downside at 6 month lows. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue a short term downtrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) pulled back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in elevated territory putting pressure on equities. The charts of the $SPY and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe but with some weakening showing up while the $IWM was starting to roll lower, a threat to its uptrend. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ were joining the IWM in a short term downtrend.

The week played out with Gold finding support and consolidating the move lower while Crude Oil pulled back early and then rebounded higher to end little changed near $100 per barrel. The US Dollar pushed back toward resistance while Treasuries fell back to 9 month lows before finding support and a bid. The Shanghai Composite found support at its long term moving average and bounced while Emerging Markets made new lows for the year.

Volatility ticked up testing the highs from the beginning of the month. This continued to press on equities and they moved lower from midweek through Friday. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ printing new 6½ month lows, with the IWM continuing its relative strength hold over its long term moving average. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at a 6½ month low and under its 200 day SMA for the first time since the gap opened in early May 2025. It held there through Wednesday and then started lower on Thursday with acceleration to the downside Friday to finish at a 7½ month low. The RSI is falling near oversold territory in the bearish zone and the MACD falling and negative.

The weekly chart shows the price continuing below the 238.2% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop and below the 50 week SMA for the first time in 11 months. The RSI is falling in the bearish zone with the MACD moving lower and near a cross to negative. There is support lower at 631 and 629 then 626 and 624 before 620 and 615. There is resistance above 639 and 646.50 then 649 and 651.50 before 658 and 661. Short Term Downtrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just 2 trading days left in the 1st Quarter, equities are at 7 month lows and breaking lower after several weeks of body blows. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to consolidate in the pullback while Crude Oil continues to churn around $100 per barrel. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to press on resistance in consolidation while US Treasuries move to the downside nearing 8 month lows. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue a short term downtrend while Emerging Markets pullback in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in elevated territory putting pressure on equities. The charts of the SPY and the QQQ are now cracking on the longer timeframe with bearish momentum while the IWM is threatening its uptrend. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ are showing signs of a wash out with downward gaps in the charts while the IWM holds up with relative strength over is long term moving average in a short term downtrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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