SPY Trends and Influencers March 22, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on March 22nd, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the March options expiration and FOMC meeting, equity markets showed possible exhaustion in the pullbacks of the past 4 weeks. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its bull run higher while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to pullback in the consolidation zone while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue in consolidation in the uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) chopped sideways in consolidation.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain elevated but moving lower making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts had experienced some damage on the longer timeframe but remained long term bullish. On the shorter timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY had found support at key levels that could lead to a reversal. Caution was to wait for proof before acting. The $IWM was broken on the shorter timeframe and at risk on in the longer timeframe.

The week played out with Gold continuing to new highs before profiting taking to end the week while Crude Oil continued to hold at the bottom of the consolidation range. The US Dollar found support and consolidated while Treasuries moved higher in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite built a narrow flag in consolidation while Emerging Markets continued to chop.

Volatility ticked down but stalled when it broke 20. This allowed equities to start the week moving higher but news and the FOMC meeting stalled that quickly. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM holding just off the bottom from Friday last week. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week bouncing off the 61.8% retracement of the leg higher since August 2023 and reclaiming the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. It moved up slightly Monday but failed to put any daylight between price and the 161.8% level for the rest of the week. It finished the week still below the 20 and 200 day SMA’s. It has a RSI stalling short of the midline on the bounce with the MACD about to cross up and negative.

The weekly chart shows a second narrow body week holding just under the 50 week SMA. The RSI has gone level at the bottom of the bullish zone with the MACD dropping but positive. There is resistance above at 565.50 and 569 then 571 and 574.50 before 581 and 585. Support lower is at 556.50 and 549.50 then 545.75 and 542.50 before 540 and 537. Pullback in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the March FOMC meeting and options expiration in the books, equity markets shifted to stability after 3 weeks of downward price action. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its ascent into space while Crude Oil consolidates at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index looks to have found support in its drift lower while US Treasuries look weaker in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to digest the recent move higher while Emerging Markets consolidate in a narrow range.

The Volatility Index looks to remain slightly elevated, putting some pressure on equity markets. Their charts remain at risk of more downside, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY may be stabilizing as they hold the bounce this week. The IWM is a bit weaker. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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