SPY Trends and Influencers March 1, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on March 1st, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the February options expiration in the books, that equity markets showed some cracks at the end of the week following a strong open post-holiday. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the downside, testing prior breakout levels, while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue higher in broad consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued a short term uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low but moving higher, putting some pressure on equity markets. The charts of both the $QQQ and $SPY looked strong on the longer timeframe, but much less so on the shorter timeframe. The $IWM continued move in a range under resistance after what looked like a failed break out in November.

The week played out with Gold holding under resistance early and then seeing profit taking midweek take it lower while Crude Oil continued to the low end of a consolidation range. The US Dollar found support midweek and bounced while Treasuries moved up to 3½ month highs. The Shanghai Composite met resistance and fell back Friday while Emerging Markets fell back sharply.

Volatility ticked up all week, hitting the top end of the consolidation range. This put pressure on equities and they moved lower all week. This resulted in the SPY filling teh January gap, the QQQ printing a 3 month low and the IWM a 5 month low. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week falling back from a new all-time high the prior week that touched the 200% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. It continued lower through Thursday before a strong bounce Friday. The daily chart shows the RSI into the bearish zone for the first time since the August 2024 bottom with the MACD negative and falling. The price is following the open Bollinger Bands lower.

The weekly chart shows a breach of the 20 week SMA, but price still not far off the top, consolidating there. The RSI is dropping towards the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD dropping but positive. There is support lower at 593 and 590 then 585 and 581 before 574.50 and 571.50. Resistance above is at 600 and 604 before 609 and 613. Consolidation in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the month of February in the books, equity markets ended with seasonally weak period, raising the fear factor. Elsewhere look for Gold to pause in its march higher while Crude Oil consolidates in the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index looks to try to rebound to the upside while US Treasuries show some short term strength in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate in the recent move higher while Emerging Markets shift to a short term move lower.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low but rising, making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ look strong still on the longer timeframe, but on the shorter timeframe both, as well as the IWM, are showing signs of a deeper pullback. The IWM remains stuck in a channel on the longer timeframe. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview February 28, 2025

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus