SPY Trends and Influencers June 19, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on June 19th, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the FOMC meeting and June options expiration, equity markets appeared to have stopped the damage with small caps leading at all-time highs. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil ($USO) settled under $90/bbl, near support and a change of character to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to drift lower near the top of the range while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold over support in consolidation after avoiding a shift in character. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term trend to the downside while Emerging Markets ($EEM) looked to recover from the pull back in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue lower in the normal zone, after a pop to test the recent range, giving a bit of a tailwind to equities. The charts of the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM continued to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe after the reset out of overbought conditions. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still had some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback was over. The IWM, however, was looking strong, with an all-time high to end the week.

The week played out with Gold bouncing off support but failing at a lower high while Crude Oil broke lower and ran to it’s long term moving average. The US Dollar snapped back and peeked over long term resistance while Treasuries continued the move higher off support. The Shanghai Composite moved higher off its long term moving average while Emerging Markets ran up to the retest the all-time highs.

Volatility moved slightly lower on the week after a spike following the FOMC meeting. Equity markets showed early strength gapping higher Monday in this environment and the IWM making a new all-time high. They all drifted lower from there though closing the gap after the FOMC press conference and holding or rising Friday to end slightly higher on the week. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at the underside of the 20 day SMA with more work left to declare the pullback dead. It gapped up Monday and closed the gap through Wednesday following the FOMC press conference before an inside day Thursday left it at the 20 day SMA at the close for the week. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone and the MACD leveling and positive. Downside risk remains with the momentum divergence shifting to what may turn out to be a lower high after a lower low.

The weekly chart shows last week’s Hammer candle confirmed as a reversal with a move higher off the 300% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The confirmation on the longer chart suggests any weakness on the shorter may be short term. The RSI is level in the bullish zone with the MACD level and positive. There is support lower at 742 followed by 733 and 728 then 724 and 718 before 715 and 710. There is resistance above at 748.50 then 751.50 and 760. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and June options expiration both in the rearview mirror, equity markets appear to have weathered the uncertainty and at or approaching all-time highs. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue a short term downtrend while Crude Oil confirms its own short term downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to continue higher breaking the 13 month range and morphing into an uptrend while US Treasuries continue to hold over support in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the consolidation in a slow drifting range higher while Emerging Markets look ready to test new highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal zone keeping a tailwind behind equities. The charts of the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM continue to look extremely strong on the longer timeframe holding over support at the highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ still have some work left in the short term bounce to prove the pullback is over. Making a new all-time high with higher momentum readings would solidify that. The IWM, however, is looking strong, consolidating after a new all-time high Monday. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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