SPY Trends and Influencers June 1, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the unofficial start of summer ahead and just 4 trading days left in May, equity markets were mixed with tech strong, large caps flat and small caps lower. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate in the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) resumed a short term downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) might resume the short term move lower while US Treasuries ($TLT) remained in a downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to pause in the short term move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) might be confirming a failed break out higher.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain very low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ looked strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the QQQ was also strong with the SPY in consolidation. The $IWM continued to be the outlier, consolidating at a higher range.

The week played out with Gold finding support and holding in a narrow range while Crude Oil consolidated rose early in the week before giving back the gain later. The US Dollar held over support while Treasuries moved higher in the downtrend. The Shanghai Composite held at support while Emerging Markets rocketed to the downside.

Volatility rose up off the recent lows but but only to 14. This put pressure on equities and the large caps and tech names responded with a 4 day move lower. The small caps found support mid week and bounced in consolidation. This resulted in the SPY, IWM and QQQ ending back below their 20 day SMA’s. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week consolidating at the all-time high but after a bearish engulfing candle failed to confirm Friday. It held Tuesday and then started to move lower on Wednesday. Thursday it crossed below the 20 day SMA for the first time since May 2nd and dropped again Friday before a strong move higher the last 30 minutes of the day. The RSI is dropping at the midline but in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed down and positive. So far this could just be a momentum reset, with no threat to the uptrend yet.

The weekly chart shows a more damaging pattern as the doji last week is confirmed as a reversal with a move lower this week. This happened as the RSI stalled at a lower high showing a divergence. The price is far from the 20 week SMA and the last pullback found support there. The MACD is crossed down and moving lower but positive. There is support at 520.50 and 517.50 then 513.50 and 510 before 503.50 and 501.50. Resistance higher is at 524.50 and 530. Digestion in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the month of May in the books, equity markets showed some signs of weakness following divergences last week. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation in the uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in a narrow range after a pullback. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to in broad consolidation while US Treasuries continue their downtrend. The short term move higher in the Shanghai Composite looks to be at risk of reversing while Emerging Markets enter a short term downtrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ look strong on the longer timeframe, but with a possible momentum reset continuing in the short run. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY have reset to their 20 day SMA’s where they often find support. How they react next week could tell if this week was meaningful or not. The IWM continues to be the laggard, stalled near the top of a 2 year range. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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