SPY Trends and Influencers July 4, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on July 5th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with just 1 trading day left in June and the 2nd Quarter, equity markets showed strength with strong moves higher. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated after a strong move lower. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued a short term move to the downside at more than 3 year lows while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the move higher in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) resumed their break to the upside in consolidation.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ showed short term strength on both timeframes. The $IWM continued to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price. The classic “V” recovery continued to build in all 3 Index ETFs as the SPY joined the QQQ making fresh all-time highs.

The week played out with Gold finding support Monday and reversing back into consolidation in the uptrend while Crude Oil rebounded higher out of consolidation. The US Dollar made fresh 3 year lows before settling while Treasuries stalled in the move higher in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite held over support in a new consolidation range while Emerging Markets climbed to 3½ year highs.

The Volatility Index fell back to the February lows. This put a tailwind behind equities and they all moved higher. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ printing a new all-time high to end the week and the IWM settling at a 4½ month high. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at a new all-time high close. It made another Monday to close out June and then paused. But Wednesday resumed the move higher and it closed the week Thursday with a gap and go move to yet another all-time high. The RSI is rising into overbought territory in the bullish zone with the MACD moving up and positive.

The weekly chart shows a follow up move higher out of consolidation the 200% extension (612) of the retracement of the 2022 drop. The RSI is rising into the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. There is support lower at 615 and 613 followed by 609 and 604 then 600 and 593. There is no resistance above Friday’s high. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Closing out the 2nd Quarter and heading into the July 4th Holiday, equity markets exhibited renewed strength with strong moves higher. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to consolidate in its uptrend while Crude Oil drifts up in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues a short term move to the downside at more than 3 year lows while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the move higher in consolidation while Emerging Markets continue their break to the upside.

The Volatility Index looks to continue in the normal range making life easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ are showing strength on both timeframes as they continue to print new all-time highs. The IWM continues to lag the SPY and QQQ in recovery in price but is joining the party racing higher as well. The classic “V” recovery continues to build in all 3 Index ETFs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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