SPY Trends and Influencers July 15, 2023

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the first week of July in the books, equity markets showed some weariness, stalling in their moves higher and giving back minor amounts. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its downtrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to move lower in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) dropped and may be resuming their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the intermediate trend lower while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain very low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong on the longer timeframe with the $SPY and $QQQ leading over the $IWM. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY were now in a short term consolidation with the IWM in a wider consolidation holding over the prior range.

The week played out with Gold finding support and reversing to the upside while Crude Oil moved up to near a 3 month high in the higher end of the consolidation range. The US Dollar broke 2023 support and fell to a 15 month low while Treasuries held at their 2023 low and reversed higher. The Shanghai Composite found support at their 200 SMA and started higher while Emerging Markets exploded to a 5 month high.

Volatility fell back to the year’s lows after starting the week with a gap higher. This put initial pressure on equities Monday at the open but then they all laughed it off and moved higher everyday. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ ending at 15 and 16 month highs, respectively, and the IWM touching 5 month highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week in a shallow pullback from a 15 month high. It touched the 20 day SMA on the daily chart on Monday and held, remaining bullish. It started higher from there breaking 450 Thursday and closing at a new 15 month high before some profit taking Friday. The daily chart shows the RSI high in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed up and positive as price moves up along the rising Bollinger Bands®.

The weekly chart shows a steady trend higher since March. The RSI on this timeframe is strong in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. There is resistance above at 451 and 454 then 457 and 460 before 463.50 and 466. Support lower comes at 447 and 444 then 441 and 437.50 before 435.50 and 431.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into July options expiration, equity markets showed strength moving higher all week until some profit taking Friday. Elsewhere look for Gold to possibly reverse higher while Crude Oil rises in consolidation. The US Dollar Index broke through support and looks to continue lower while US Treasuries remain in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue consolidation as well while Emerging Markets continue a short term move higher.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the IWM, the QQQ and SPY all broke clear of short term consolidation and have upside room. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview July 14, 2023

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Dragonfly Caps Blog