SPY Trends and Influencers January 3, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on January 3rd, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the shortened Christmas week in the books and just 3 trading days left in the year, equity markets showed mixed strength with the SPY and QQQ rising while the IWM drifted lower. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend at new all-time highs while Crude Oil ($USO) held at the bottom of a consolidation range on the verge of shifting to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued the short term drift to the downside in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued in consolidation and looking better lower.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the sideways motion in the uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) marched in place in their uptrend as well. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold low in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ looked strong on the longer timeframe, with a shift to the large cap SPY leading now. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM looked to have weathered the pullback and were ready to move higher again with the SPY heading the charge.

The week played out with Gold pulling back to support from the move over 4500/oz while Crude Oil held over support in the bottom of a range. The US Dollar held at support teasing a reversal while Treasuries fell back to retest the 4 month low. The Shanghai Composite stalled short of the prior high, moving sideways, while Emerging Markets gapped up to start the New Year to retest the October high.

Volatility rose slightly but remained at below normal levels. This took pressure off of equities, however, they saw selling pressure into the end of the year, casting doubt over the possibility of a Santa Claus Rally. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM drawing lower and continuing in consolidation ranges in their uptrends. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just pennies off of the all-time high set on Christmas Eve. It drifted lower Monday and continued through Wednesday, before a slight move higher Friday. The RSI is holding at the midline in the bullish zone with the MACD curling down and positive.

The weekly chart shows a small body candle holding at resistance and trying to remain out of the range since late September. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD drifting lower and positive. There is support lower at 680 then 676.50 and 674 before 670 and 667. There is resistance above at 685 and 689.50 then 691.50. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With 2025 in the books and just 1 trading day into the New Year, equity markets showed modest weakness as they drifted lower in Holiday trading. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend move toward new all-time highs while Crude Oil holds at the bottom of consolidation, threatening a renewed downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues the short term drift to the upside in consolidation while US Treasuries continue in consolidation and looking better lower. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the sideways motion in the uptrend while Emerging Markets may be on the edge of renewing their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold low in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ remain strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ continue to consolidate in the longer term uptrend. The IWM is at greater risk, having bounce from a lower low. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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