SPY Trends and Influencers February 8, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on February 8th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with January in the books, equity markets showed resilience with a rebound from an ugly start Monday only to end the week on a sour note. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its move to new highs while Crude Oil ($USO) dropped in a broad consolidation range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) pulled back in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to re-open and continue the sideways consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued a short term move lower.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low and stable, making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the $SPY, the $QQQ and the $IWM all looked to be in a short term consolidation, disappointing after what looked at midweek like a renewed short term uptrend.

The week played out with Gold continuing to make more new all-time highs as it touched $2900/oz while Crude Oil continued to the lower end of the broad consolidation range. The US Dollar spiked early but then gave up ground all week while Treasuries rose to test the November lows. The Shanghai Composite moved sideways then slightly higher Friday while Emerging Markets jumped to a 6 week high.

Volatility spiked at the open Monday but fell back all week to end at support and lower on the week. This knocked back equities early in the week as a reaction to tariffs being imposed but they reversed and rose the rest of the week after the administration delaying their implementation. This resulted in the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM all reclaiming last week’s closing levels before some Friday profit taking. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just a fraction off the new all-time high set a week ago. It gapped down Monday through the 20 day SMA on the daily chart and then saw an intraday move higher. That move up continued through Thursday. Friday tariff headlines again led to a sell off that left it back near the Tuesday close but over the 20 and 50 day SMA’s. The RSI holding in the bullish zone with the MACD level but positive.

The weekly chart shows a sideways move continuing to hold over the 20 week SMA. The RSI is in the bullish zone with the MACD level after a pullback and positive. The Bollinger Bands® are slowing closing. There is support at 600 and 593 then 590 and 585 before 580 and 574.50. Resistance higher is at 604 and 609 before 610.25. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the first week of February in the books, equity markets showed resilience with a rebound from an ugly start anticipating tariffs. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its assault on $3000/oz while Crude Oil falls in consolidation in a broad range. The US Dollar Index looks to pause in the drift to the upside while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to consolidate while Emerging Markets continue a short term move lower.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and stable, making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe consolidation ranges continue to hold the QQQ and SPY just under all-time highs with the IWM consolidating at resistance. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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