SPY Trends and Influencers February 22, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on February 22nd, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw heading into the Washington’s Birthday weekend and February options expiration, equity markets show strength with a rebound from more talk of tariffs and a rough inflation print. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to possibly pullback or pause in the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to drift to the downside testing a breakout level that launched the uptrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term move higher in broad consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued a short term move higher.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low and stable, making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially on the longer timeframe with the $SPY and $QQQ leading the charge. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY ended the week pennies from new all-time highs. The $IWM, however, continued to muddle along in a range.

The week played out with Gold making more all-time highs as it approaches $3000/oz while Crude Oil rebounded off short term support in consolidation. The US Dollar dropped to a 2½ month low while Treasuries continued in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite managed a move over short term consolidation to a new 2½ month high while Emerging Markets ran up to 3½ highs.

The Volatility Index held near the low of a 6 month range. This took some pressure off of equities and they rose to new highs midweek. Thursday and Friday saw sellers prevailing though in what has been a pattern during the new Administration’s early days. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week 2 cents below its all-time high. It made a new all-time highs Tuesday and Wednesday before giving up some ground Thursday. Friday bled lower with the biggest move since December 19th back to retest the round number on Options Expiry Day. This was also the 50 day SMA. The daily chart shows the RSI falling back through the midline with the MACD crossed down and positive.

The weekly chart printed a bearish engulfing candle but holding over the 20 week SMA. It is now also showing a negative momentum divergence with the RSI trending lower as it is printing a new high. The RSI remains in the bullish zone with the MACD drifting lower but positive. There is support at 593 and 590 then 585 and 580 before 574.50 and 571.50. Resistance above 600 is at 604 and 609 then 613. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the February options expiration in the books, equity markets showed some cracks at the end of the week following a strong open post-holiday. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to drift to the downside, testing prior breakout levels, while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue higher in broad consolidation while Emerging Markets continue a short term uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low but moving higher, putting some pressure on equity markets. The charts of both the QQQ and SPY look strong on the longer timeframe, but much less so on the shorter timeframe. The IWM continues move in a range under resistance after what now looks like a failed break out in November. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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