SPY Trends and Influencers February 21, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, heading into the Washington’s Birthday Exchange Holiday, after absorbing both Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI data, equity markets showed they could use a rest getting knocked back a bit on the week. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to drift between $5000 and $5100 continuing to digest the long move up while Crude Oil ($USO) moved slightly higher in the consolidation range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) was showing some weakness again heading toward a 4 year low while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold in the lower end of the consolidation zone.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to be pausing in the uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) reached for new all-time highs in their uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher, but with a drift higher. The charts of the $SPY and the $IWM remained strong on the longer timeframe with the $QQQ starting to roll a bit lower. On the shorter timeframe all 3 were in consolidation ranges with the top at the highs but with negative momentum divergences that could lead to short term moves lower.

The week played out with Gold continuing the consolidation around the $5000/oz area while Crude Oil found some strength and pushed up to 6½ month highs. The US Dollar drifted higher before meeting resistance while Treasuries rose to 3 month highs before setting back unchanged on the week. The Shanghai Composite was closed for the week as the country celebrated the Lunar New Year while Emerging Markets ran up to new highs.

The Volatility Index held in a tight range at the upper bound of the normal range. This led to equities also holding in a narrow band, just below their all-time highs. This resulted in the SPY and QQQ continuing in the consolidation channels while the IWM consolidates in a tightening range. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just below the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the drop to the Liberation Day low and over the 100 day SMA. It held there Tuesday and then drifted up to the 50 day SMA Wednesday and crossed over it Friday to finish just under the 20 day SMA. The RSI is rising at the midline in the bullish zone in a negative divergence with price and the MACD flat and barely negative.

The weekly chart shows a small white candle reversing back up off the 20 week SMA toward the 261.8% extension of the retracement of 2022 drop. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD drifting lower and positive. There is support lower at 685 and 680 then 676.50 and 674 before 670 and 667. There is resistance above at 689 then 692 and 697. Consolidation in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the last week of February and after the Supreme Court ruling that tariffs were illegally put in place, equity markets showed resilience holding steady on the week. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue to drift between $5000 and $5100 digesting the long move up while Crude Oil moves slightly higher in the consolidation range. The US Dollar Index is continuing to show some weakness holding near a 4 year low while US Treasuries look to hold in the upper end of the consolidation zone. The Shanghai Composite looks to come back in action after the holidays to a pause in the uptrend while Emerging Markets continue to add new all-time highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the SPY and the IWM remain strong on the longer timeframe with the QQQ starting to recover from a roll lower. On the shorter timeframe all 3 are in consolidation ranges with the top at the highs but with negative momentum divergences that could lead to short term moves lower. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview February 20, 2026

If you like what you see above sign up for deeper analysis and trading strategy by using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits page.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Dragonfly Caps Blog