SPY Trends and Influencers February 15, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the first week of February in the books, equity markets showed resilience with a rebound from an ugly start anticipating tariffs. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its assault on $3000/oz while Crude Oil ($USO) fell in consolidation in a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to pause in the drift to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue to consolidate while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued a short term move lower.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low and stable, making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe consolidation ranges continued to hold the $QQQ and $SPY just under all-time highs with the $IWM consolidating at resistance.

The week played out with Gold storming higher with 2 new all-time highs as it approached $3000/oz ony to see profit taking Friday while Crude Oil holds in the middle of a brad consolidation range. The US Dollar fell all week touching a 2 month low while Treasuries continue to stall at lower highs in bounces within the downtrend. The Shanghai Composite started a slow rise out of the tight consolidation while Emerging Markets continued the run up to a 2 month high.

Volatility drifted back to the 2025 lows. This took some pressure off of equities early in the week but they held still ahead of inflation prints and tariff talk until moving higher Thursday and Friday. This resulted in the SPY flirting with a new all-time high Thursday and the QQQ just shy of its apex. The IWM continued the sideways motion. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week moving sideways after a 2nd short term lower high on the daily chart. A bull flag forming, it printed an inside day Monday and held there Tuesday. Wednesday it dropped to the 50 day SMA at the open following the CPI report and moved higher all day. It followed through Thursday to finish just 2 cents off the all-time high close and just under the 200% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. Friday saw it push higher only to close 5 cents short of the all-time high. The Bollinger Bands® on the daily chart are tightening. The RSI is level in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and flat.

The weekly chart shows the short term pullback finding support at the 20 week SMA and reversing to the high. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and leveling after a pullback. The Bollinger Bands continue to slowly tighten. There is resistance at 610.25. Support lower is at 609 and 604 then 600 and 593 before 590 and 585. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the Washington’s Birthday weekend and February options expiration, equity markets showed strength with a rebound from more talk of tariffs and a rough inflation print. Elsewhere look for Gold to possibly pullback or pause in the uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in a broad range. The US Dollar Index looks to drift to the downside testing a breakout level that launched the uptrend while US Treasuries consolidate in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term move higher in broad consolidation while Emerging Markets continue a short term move higher.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and stable, making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe with the SPY and QQQ leading the charge. On the shorter timeframe both the QQQ and SPY ended the week pennies from new all-time highs. The IWM, however, continues to muddle along in a range. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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