SPY Trends and Influencers February 14, 2026

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on February 14th, 2026

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw, with the first week of February in the books, equity markets showed resilience recovering after a midweek trip-up in a data light week. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to regroup around $5000/oz digesting the long move up while Crude Oil ($USO) moved sideways in the consolidation range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) was showing some strength rising off a 4 year low while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued to hold in the lower end of the consolidation zone and looked better lower.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to pause in the uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) had reset momentum gauges and looked ready for new all-time highs in their uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ remained strong on the longer timeframe with the IWM leading. On the shorter timeframe the IWM was also strong holding over support. The SPY and QQQ continued to move in consolidation just under their highs.

The week played out with Gold moving up and meeting resistance, establishing a new key level above $5000/oz while Crude Oil continued in consolidation in a tight $3 range. The US Dollar dropped early and then consolidated at prior support while Treasuries broke resistance at ended at levels not seen since Black Friday. The Shanghai Composite managed a small bounce but stalled at another lower high while Emerging Markets broke above the January top to another all-time high before late week profit taking.

Volatility remained normal early and then ticked up late in the week to end near last week’s slightly elevated level. This aligned with equities drifting back toward their highs through midweek before a drop lower. The result was the IWM, the SPY and the QQQ all ended lower on the week, with the IWM the best performer and the QQQ the worst. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week just below the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the drop to the Liberation Day low. It started higher Monday and the reversed Tuesday and continued lower to touch the 100 day SMA Friday before rebounding. This was almost identical to last week’s pattern, but without the strong Friday finish, and so finished down on the week. The RSI is falling back below the midline in the bullish zone in a negative divergence with price and the MACD flat and barely negative.

The weekly chart shows another small red candle dropping back to the 20 week SMA from the 261.8% extension of the retracement of 2022 drop. The RSI is dipping in the bullish zone with the MACD drifting lower and positive. There is support lower at 680 then 676.50 and 674 before 670 and 667. There is resistance above at 685 and 689 then 692 and 697. Consolidation in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the Washington’s Birthday Exchange Holiday after absorbing both Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI data, equity markets show they could use a rest getting knocked back a bit on the week. Elsewhere, look for Gold to drift between $5000 and $5100 continuing to digest the long move up while Crude Oil moves slightly higher in the consolidation range. The US Dollar Index is showing some weakness again heading toward a 4 year low while US Treasuries continue to hold in the lower end of the consolidation zone. The Shanghai Composite looks to be pausing in the uptrend while Emerging Markets reach for new all-time highs in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher, but with a drift higher. The charts of the SPY and the IWM remain strong on the longer timeframe with the QQQ starting to roll a bit lower. On the shorter timeframe all 3 are in consolidation ranges with the top at the highs but with negative momentum divergences that could lead to short term moves lower. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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