SPY Trends and Influencers December 28, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with just 5½ trading days left in 2024, the week showed a crack in equity markets following the FOMC December meeting. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate the major move higher while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in the lower end of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the upside while US Treasuries ($TLT) pulled back in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to consolidate in its uptrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) might reverse their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain low after spiking and pulling back making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the $SPY and $QQQ continued to look strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both looked a little weaker. The $IWM was now weak enough that it is threatening the uptrend.

The week played out with Gold continuing in consolidation while Crude Oil jostled in its consolidation range. The US Dollar settled under resistance while Treasuries fell continued down to new 56 week lows. The Shanghai Composite held in a tight range while Emerging Markets held in a tight range at last week’s low.

Volatility continued to tick lower. This gave equities some energy and they rose to recover most or all of the post FOMC drop. This resulted in the SPY moving back over 600 and the QQQ back over 530. The IWM saw a much smaller, but positive, move on the week. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week pulling back on the daily chart in the uptrend. It rebounded through Thursday but then saw profit taking Friday drive it lower. The RSI is curling lower after breaking teh midline in the bearish range while the MACD is level and positive.

The weekly chart shows little damage as price still remains above the 20 week SMA. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD looking to cross down. There is support at 593 and 590 then 585 and 580 before 574.50 and 571.50. Resistance above is at 600 and 604 then 609. Pullback in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just 2 trading days left in 2024, the week showed a some disappointment in equity markets following a strong rebound early. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to consolidate the major move higher while Crude Oil consolidates in the lower end of a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues to hold at resistance while US Treasuries pullback in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate in its uptrend while Emerging Markets may be reversing their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and QQQ continue to look strong on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both look a little weaker. The IWM is now weak enough that it is threatening the uptrend. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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