SPY Trends and Influencers December 20, 2025

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on December 20th, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the December FOMC meeting in the books and ahead of the non-farm payroll and CPI reports, equity markets showed strength moving higher until profit taking Friday. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend and challenge the all-time high while Crude Oil ($USO) held lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued the short term drift to the downside in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued in consolidation and looking better lower.

The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the pause in the uptrend after some digestion from the 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) held up in their uptrend. The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ looked strong on the longer timeframe, with the IWM leading. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the IWM looked to hold near their fresh all-time highs, while the QQQ seemed at risk for some downside.

The week played out with Gold inching higher toward the all-time high while Crude Oil dropped to the lowest level since February 2021 before a small bounce. The US Dollar found support early and reversed to drift slightly higher while Treasuries continued the short term move lower in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite continued to struggle to breach its falling moving average while Emerging Markets dropped to a 2 month low before finding support and bouncing.

The Volatility Index held in a tight range in the normal zone, creating a backdrop that should be pleasing for equities. Equities struggled though, dealing with the remnants of last week’s AI fears and the first new Government data in over a month. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ holding near last week’s low and the IWM losing a little ground. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week pulling back from an all-time high. It continued lower for 3 days before stalling Thursday and moving higher Friday. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling lower and positive.

The weekly chart shows a small body candle holding under resistance. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD rolling over and positive. There is support lower at 680 followed by 676.50 and 674 then 670 and 667 before 662 and 658. There is resistance above at 685 and 689.25. Consolidation in the Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the December Quad Witching in the books, equity markets showed some strength at the end of the week to stop the drop. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend and challenge the all-time high while Crude Oil holds lower on the verge of shifting to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues the short term drift to the upside in consolidation while US Treasuries continue in consolidation and looking better lower. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the pause in the uptrend after some digestion from the 10 year highs while Emerging Markets hold up in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ look strong on the longer timeframe, with the IWM leading. On the shorter timeframe the SPY, the QQQ and the IWM look to have weathered the storm and maybe ready to start higher again. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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