SPY Trends and Influencers December 14, 2024

• Posted by Greg Harmon
• on December 14th, 2024

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the first week of December in the books, equity markets showed strength with tech and large cap printing new all-time highs 4 of the 5 days. The small caps held their ground as well. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue to consolidate in the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the downside in consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) held in broad consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the short term move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) continued their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain very low and stabilizing making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts looked strong, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY continued to look powerful as they rack up more new all-time highs. The $IWM was taking a pause in a bull flag, preparing for a possible all-time high as well.

The week played out with Gold pushing higher in consolidation before falling back while Crude Oil continued to hold in in the lower end of a broad consolidation range. The US Dollar found support and rose to recent highs while Treasuries fell back all week, ending just above the November lows. The Shanghai Composite retested the November highs before dropping back while Emerging Markets gave up a Monday spike and held in a tight range.

Volatility ticked up early but then resumes the drift lower on the week, ending little changed. This led to the SPY and QQQ starting the week dropping back from the prior Friday’s all-time highs. The QQQ threw in a new high Wednesday, but both held in a tight range at the highs. The IWM continued the pullback from a retest at the highs. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week at an all-time high. It pulled back Monday and Tuesday before a reversal Wednesday that stopped just 30 cents short of the all-time high. It pulled back slightly Thursday and Friday to end the week slightly lower. The RSI is pulling back in the bullish zone with the MACD crossed down but positive.

The weekly chart shows the movement as a small consolidation candle. Price remains near the top of the rising Bollinger Bands. The RSI is holding deep in the bullish zone with the MACD rising and positive. There is resistance at 604.20 and 609. Support lower is at 600 and 593 then 590 and 585 before 580. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With just 10 trading days left in the year, equity markets continue to show strength on the large cap and tech front, with some weakness appearing in small caps. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation in the uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in the lower end of a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues the short term move to the upside while US Treasuries hold in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate in the uptrend while Emerging Markets continue the short term move higher.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe, with the small cap IWM showing some downside risk. On the shorter timeframe the QQQ has been the short term leader and looks to continue while the SPY consolidates at the high and the IWM pullback looks to deepen. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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