SPY Trends and Influencers December 13, 2025

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the first week of December in the books and the FOMC next week, equity markets showed strength moving higher. Elsewhere, looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue the uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) would hold lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued the short term drift to the downside while US Treasuries ($TLT) continued in consolidation still teasing of a possible reversal higher. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the uptrend after some digestion from the 10 year highs while Emerging Markets ($EEM) moved up from support in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to continue to hold in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the $SPY, the $IWM and the $QQQ looked strong on the longer timeframe after reversals on the week. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the QQQ had regained their swagger with higher short term highs, while the IWM led the charge with a new all-time high.

The week played out with Gold moving higher back over 4300/oz while Crude Oil clings to support since April. The US Dollar fell to a new 2 month low while Treasuries fell back to a 3 month low. The Shanghai Composite held in a tight range below its important 20 day moving average while Emerging Markets fell back to support with a second lower high.

The Volatility Index stabilized ahead of the FOMC meeting and then expanded slightly the range following the rate cut. But it remained in the normal range leaving equities the freedom to follow flows. This led to small cap IWM breaking to new highs Wednesday and Thursday. The large caps were mixed with the SPY also making new highs following the FOMC meeting but the QQQ not getting that post FOMC bump. All three saw index ETF’s saw selling hit Friday with the SPY and QQQ ending the week lower while the IWM held slightly higher. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week flirting with a new all-time high.  It drifted lower Monday and Tuesday and then rebounded following the FOMC press conference Wednesday to a new high close and followed it up with another Thursday. Friday saw selling at the open drive price back lower to close down on the week. The RSI is falling in the bullish zone, a short term negative momentum divergence with price, with the MACD rolling over and positive.

The weekly chart shows a small body candle falling back under resistance. The RSI is holding in the bullish zone with the MACD level and positive. There is support lower at 680 followed by 676.50 and 674 then 670 and 667 before 662 and 658. There is resistance above at 685 and 689.25. Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

With the December FOMC meeting in the books and ahead of the non-farm payroll and CPI reports next week, equity markets showed strength moving higher until profit taking Friday. Elsewhere, look for Gold to continue the uptrend and challenge the all-time high while Crude Oil holds lower in consolidation. The US Dollar Index continues the short term drift to the downside in consolidation while US Treasuries continue in consolidation and looking better lower. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the pause in the uptrend after some digestion from the 10 year highs while Emerging Markets hold up in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to continue to hold in the normal range making it easier for equities to move higher. The charts of the SPY, the IWM and the QQQ look strong on the longer timeframe, with the IWM leading. On the shorter timeframe the SPY and the IWM look to hold near their fresh all-time highs, while the QQQ seems at risk for some downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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